Landis Talks About Syria’s Assad Regime
Listen to the Story on All Things Considered, [4 min 44 sec]-
Audie Cornish talks with Joshua Landis, January 30, 2012

U.N. Security Council Meets: Syria’s Assad May Be Under Pressure, but He’s Not on His Way Out Yet
By Tony Karon | January 31, 2012 | Time

The Front Row, The New Yorker, Online Only
January 31, 2012, Images from Syria
Posted by Richard Brody

Ossama Mohammed

There’s an open letter by Syrian artists published today in Le Monde—the filmmakers Hala Alabdalla and Ossama Mohammed, the actress Reem Ali, and the cartoonist Ali Ferzat are among its first fifty signatories—titled “Deliver Syria So That It Regains the Right to Live and to Create!”….

Foreign Policy

Security Council debate on Syria sputters

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Top news: Arab and Western states spent Tuesday calling on the U.N. Security Council to adopt a resolution urging Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and delegate power to his deputy over his crackdown on an 11-month-old uprising, which has grown increasingly violent. But Russia and China, both veto-wielding Security Council members, remain unconvinced.

Vladimir Chizhov, Moscow’s envoy to the European Union, explained on Wednesday that Russia would veto the draft resolution unless it explicitly ruled out military intervention in Syria, while Li Baodong, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, told the Security Council that China opposed the “use of force” and “pushing for forced regime change” in Syria. “Behind all the arguments lurked the ghost of Libya,” the New York Times observes.

SNC News

Bahiya Mardini catalogs the growing differences that are dividing members of the Syrian National Council, the main opposition organization that Washington is cultivating. They are fighting over finances, which are not transparent. They are also fighting over the proper relationship with Syria’s growing militias, which seek to coordinate under the umbrella organization of the Free Syrian Army.

الخلافات تتفاقم بين أعضاء المجلس الوطني السوري

بهية مارديني,  2012 الإثنين 30 يناير

اندلعت الإتهامات بين أعضاء “المجلس الوطني” حول الأمور المالية والتنظيمية وغياب الدعم عن “الجيش السوري الحر” بالإضافة لشكوك بوجود “أزلام” بشار الأسد بينهم.

Rebels Without a Clue: Why can’t the Syrian opposition get its act together?
BY JUSTIN VELA | JANUARY 31, 2012 – Foreign Policy

Muqdad’s frustration with the Syrian National Council (SNC), the body intended to serve as the political representation of the Syrian opposition, has grown. He has diligently traveled around Turkey, arranging coverage of the Syrian uprising by major media outlets, holding meetings in Western embassies, and coordinating with activists inside the country. In the meantime, he has come to see the SNC as disorganized, disconnected from the Syrians on the ground, and out of step with the broad spectrum of Syrian society.

“We know it is impossible to be 100 percent representative of the nation or the opposition,” Muqdad told me. “[But the SNC] does not know the principles of running the opposition.” …

It’s not only Muqdad whose initial optimism regarding Syria’s organized opposition has faded. A wide range of activists and diplomats are voicing concerns with the SNC, criticizing its lack of cohesion and effectiveness. While the majority of them have not given up on the council, they paint a picture of an organization out of touch with the protesters on the ground and dominated by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

“No one from the SNC has influence inside Syria. Most members of the SNC are jumping on a train that started from the street,” says Ammar Qurabi, a Syrian human rights activist, arguing that SNC leaders are trying to use the momentum of the demonstrations to take political power. Qurabi refuses to work with the SNC and plans to launch his own opposition group in early February

The SNC is composed of a nine-person executive committee, sitting on top of an approximately 250-person body. The organization’s leadership is primarily made up of Sunni Arabs, and though it has made an effort to include members of other sects and ethnicities, few are present on the council.

Qurabi notes that the SNC has been particularly negligent in incorporating members of Assad’s Alawite sect. “No Alawite on the executive council — that is a scandal,” he says. “Especially when we fight Assad, who says, ‘I am Alawite. I protect Alawites’?” ….

“The Free Syrian Army could leave them in the dust unless the SNC can do something for the FSA,” the diplomat worries. …

One particularly damaging stumble occurred when SNC Chairman Burhan Ghalioun signed a draft agreement with the National Coordination Committee,..

The most divisive issue surrounding the SNC, however, clearly remains the prominent role played by the Muslim Brotherhood. “The Muslim Brotherhood is the only party in town,” says the Ankara-based Western diplomat. …

Muqdad’s initial optimism about the SNC faded, he says, when he realized the extent of the Brotherhood’s dominance. While he has been in close touch with Western diplomats, he thinks that non-SNC members have been blocked from speaking publicly and that the SNC takes credit for activities that it was not involved in.

“We have no problem with [the Brotherhood] as a political party,” explains Muqdad, a Sunni Muslim who joined the opposition in 1999 and claims to have spent years living underground. “[But] they are using the wrong ways to lead.” …

The Brotherhood’s prominence has also opened old wounds with former members of the Syrian military, who had counted the Islamist movement as its primary domestic foe before the current revolt. A defected Syrian soldier in the Free Officers Movement, which is aligned with the Free Syrian Army but does not take orders from it, describes the Brotherhood as “malignant.”

“[The Free Officers Movement] has a limited relation with the SNC because they are controlled by the Muslim Brothers,” he told me.

The officer, a Sunni, said that the Brotherhood’s presence was particularly problematic in Syria due to the large number of minorities in the country. It would be difficult to convince minorities, especially the Alawites, that their rights would be guaranteed with the Muslim Brotherhood steering the political opposition, he says.

Mohammed Farouk Tayfour, the deputy secretary-general of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood, insists that his movement will cooperate fairly with other opposition groups. …

“All Syrians have the mentality that they want to be president,” Muqdad says. “Except me. I want to be on Miami Beach.”

U.S. spy chief says Syria’s Assad cannot hold power MSNBC

Thomas Pierret writes that Free Syrian Army members took a tank from loyalist forces and used it against them: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g32jed0lN3M

Sectarian attack kills 14 of same family in Syria
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
AMMAN | Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:49pm EST

(Reuters) – Militiamen loyal to President Bashar al-Assad killed 14 members of a Sunni family in the city of Homs on Thursday in one of the grizzliest sectarian attacks in the ten-month uprising raging in the Alawite-dominated country, activists and residents said….
“Alawites who had remained in Karm al-Zeitoun mysteriously left four days ago, and the rumor was that they did so on orders by the authorities. Today we know why,” said a doctor in the district who did not want to be named.

“We also have seventy people wounded. Field hospitals themselves are coming under mortar fire,” he said. Hamza, an activist in Homs said that the attack was “pure revenge” for shabbiha members being killed by army defectors loosely grouped under the Free Syrian Army.

He said Sunni families were fleeing Karm al-Zeitoun to other parts of the city, and several Sunni neighborhoods, such as Bab Sbaa, also came under fire. Tit-for-tat sectarian killings began in Homs four months ago, following armored military assaults on Sunni areas of the city by forces led by members of Assad’s minority Alawite sect.

Mass killings have included Alawites in micro-buses on the way to their villages near Homs and Sunnis stopped at a roadblock while heading to work at a factory. Women from the two sects have been abducted and killed also, activists said.

The killings have raised the prospect of the pro-democracy protest movement against Assad turning into a civil war, as his opponents take up arms and fight back against loyalist forces cracking down on demonstrators.

New Jihad Group in Syria Announces Its Establishment – MEMRI

A new jihad group, Jabhat Al-Nusra Li-Ahl Al-Sham, (“The Front for the Protection of the Syrian People”) whose goal is to topple the Syrian regime, has released a video announcing its establishment. The 16-minute video, which was produced by the group’s media company Al-Manara Al-Baida (“White Lighthouse”), was posted January 24, 2012 on the jihadi forum Shumoukh Al-Islam after a two-day promotion campaign that included large banners and a countdown to the release….

In tumultuous Syrian city, kidnapping trade booms
January 27, 2012, Daily Times, Pakistan

In Homs, members of the same minority sect to which Assad himself belongs kidnap Sunni Muslims. Those who are part of the Sunni majority, backbone of protests against 42 years of autocratic Assad family rule, go after Alawites.

So far, sectarian violence and killing are rarely the goals of the abductions. But the kidnapping trend in the city of one million people, Syria’s third largest, has taken on a logic of its own.

Some seize people for money in Homs, where the bloody turmoil paralysing the city has left thousands jobless. Others kidnap to trade hostages. And some simply feel that having captives on hand could serve as leverage later. Residents say police write reports but never take action. “There is no one to complain to. There’s no law. You either sit and wait for God’s mercy, or you kidnap too. Homs is now in the hands of hooligans. Rationality is gone,” said Jamal, 30, an Alawite driver held for five days.

Stories like his are hard to verify, as government restrictions and the ongoing violence curb media access. But human rights groups and the government itself have chronicled dozens of kidnapping cases. All of those interviewed spoke by Skype, to avoid the telephone monitoring of security services. In Homs, near-empty streets are patrolled by jittery soldiers hiding behind stacked sandbags. Residents shut themselves inside by dusk to avoid kidnappers waiting under the cover of darkness.

Even going out in the daytime is risky now. Jamal was kidnapped at noon. “I was driving out of the market. Four men with Kalashnikovs waved me down. I sped away because I knew what would happen.” But a hidden car raced out of an alley and cut him off. “They dragged me out of my car and beat me. They took my two mobile phones, 2,500 liras ($40) in my pocket and my shoes.” Jamal was then taken to a house where he was crammed into a room with 10 other Alawites, held hostage for days on end. “It was the house of a guy people call ‘The Frowner’. He’s a creep. He runs the kidnapping scheme in that neighbourhood. It was such a farce, I stopped worrying I would die,” he said.

The kidnappers let Jamal call his family and tell them they needed to pay 150,000 lira (around $2,500) for his release and another 300,000 to get back his car. “My family is poor. They don’t have much money, so they talked to some of the Alawite thugs in our neighbourhood hoping to get some Sunnis released in exchange for me,” Jamal said.

In Syria, many caught ‘in the middle’
By Nic Robertson, CNN January 24, 2012

In places like Homs, the cradle of the uprising, the writing is on the wall for the rest of the country. Some neighborhoods have thrown out the government completely, such as in the Baba Amr district, where the Free Syrian Army has control. Communities have divided on sectarian lines. Many Christians have fled to Damascus. Garbage is piled high in the streets, electricity is cut, civilian causalities mount, and on the other side of the impromptu front-line barricades, the death toll of government soldiers creeps up as well.

A drive around Homs reveals a medieval-style siege, multiple checkpoints to move between neighborhoods, even a deep new ditch in places rings the city. But the uprising continues.

The opposition in Homs is better organized. A new council has been formed, it has a budget — money, some say, is coming from the Gulf — and runs medical and humanitarian supplies.

But the council is not the only show in town. Salafists are moving in too, Islamic radicals, many with terror tactics honed in neighboring Iraq. Reports abound of infighting both inside and outside Syria, the hard-liners already jockeying for post-al-Assad power.

If war escalates, as it surely seems it will, expect a long and bloody campaign. As the man in the middle I met on my way back to London told me: “We are afraid of the men with guns, afraid the radicals will impose their backwards views on us.”

We Intervene in Syria at Our Peril, By Ed Husain, Feb 1 2012

Western military involvement would worsen violence, not end it, and could spread the conflict beyond Syria’s borders.

Supporters of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad attend a rally in Damascus / Reuters

I was living in Syria the last time that the world was talking about President Bashar al-Assad’s imminent demise. With neighboring Iraq’s Saddam Hussein (a Ba’ath party leader, like Assad) overthrown, many of my students at the University of Damascus anticipated that soon we could remove the portraits of Assad from our classrooms. For encouraging dissent, I was monitored by the dreaded secret service, the mukhabarat. During my two-year stay in Syria, I was detained at airports and threatened with deportation if I did not stop calling for democracy. I was branded a CIA agent by regime-loyalist students who objected to my patronage of a student debate society in Damascus — an early attempt to encourage young people to think freely.

I supported the removal of Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, but I also learned from the many mistakes that followed. Much like Iraq under Saddam, the ruling Ba’ath party in Syria controls almost every aspect of public life: business, military, media, police, education, and even religious institutions. Regime change in Syria would be bloody and protracted. I still maintain frequent contact with friends in Syria, and visited the country regularly until late 2010. When friends in Washington, DC, such as the normally measured Steven Cook present the U.S. with a false choice of intervening militarily or seeing Assad stay in office longer, as he did in a recent article on this site, I worry.

From Informed Comment

On Tuesday, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, slammed al-Maliki for his anti-Sunni policies, warning in essence that if the Shiite-dominated army represses Iraq’s Sunnis, Turkey (a Sunni-majority country) would feel constrained to intervene. Turkey has already made military incursions into Iraq in hot pursuit of Kudistan Workers’ Party (PKK) guerrillas who have attacked military and civilian targets in eastern Turkey.

Turkey’s embassy in Baghdad was targeted by (inaccurate) rocket fire twice last week.

Turkey’s Erdogan and Iraq’s al-Maliki are also at odds over Syria, with Erdogan calling for Bashar al-Assad to step down and al-Maliki more or less supporting the al-Assad government. (Al-Maliki is said to fear that the secular Baath Party might be overthrown by Sunni radicals who will give aid to Sunni insurgents in Iraq).

President Obama’s State of the Union Address

Obama devoted one-and-a-half paragraphs to the uprisings in the Middle East but didn’t explicitly mention America’s role in the military intervention in Libya that toppled Muammar al-Qaddafi — the centerpiece of what some have described as the Obama administration’s doctrine of “leading from behind.”

The takeaway line may have been Obama’s singling out of Syria: “In Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can’t be reversed, and that human dignity can’t be denied”

But Obama did not say whether his administration would take any more concrete steps to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad see the light.

Around60 people have been killed in the restive city of Homs in the past two days ina brutal siege by Syrian security forces and shabbiha, militiamen, according to activists and residents. Residents claim the killings were along sectarian divides, referring to the situation as “racial cleansing.”Reports could not be confirmed, but video showed the bodies of women and children. Meanwhile the Free Syria Army has released a video of seven captured men alleged to be Iranian — five of whom are purported to be members of the Revolutionary Guards — heightening suspicions over Iranian and Hezbollah military support for Syrian regime forces. Also, the United Nations Security Council will hold a meeting today “behind closed doors” on are solution drafted by Morocco on Syria. The resolution would reflect the Arab League proposal calling for President Bashar al-Assad to yield power to his deputy and develop a transitional unity government that would hold elections within two months. Russia and China vetoed a draft resolution in October that would have condemned the regime violence in Syria.Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said this draft is also “unacceptable“maintaining that the document must rule out the use of force. Russia is believed to likely take issue with another point concerning the prevention of arms transfers. Representatives from the Arab League will meet with the Security Council on Saturday to gain support for its proposals on Syria as the group’s observer mission as been subject to great criticism.

Headlines

• A suicide car bomber killed at least 31 people and injured 60 in Iraq at a funeral procession in a Shiite neighborhood in sectarian violence that has seen casualties double those of last January.

The Eclipse of Bashar al-Assad, January 27, 2012,by Hilal Khashan

President Obama’s State of the Union Address

Obama devoted one-and-a-half paragraphs to the uprisings in the Middle East but didn’t explicitly mention America’s role in the military intervention in Libya that toppled Muammar al-Qaddafi — the centerpiece of what some have described as the Obama administration’s doctrine of “leading from behind.”

The takeaway line may have been Obama’s singling out of Syria: “In Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can’t be reversed, and that human dignity can’t be denied”

But Obama did not say whether his administration would take any more concrete steps to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad see the light.

From Informed Comment

On Tuesday, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, slammed al-Maliki for his anti-Sunni policies, warning in essence that if the Shiite-dominated army represses Iraq’s Sunnis, Turkey (a Sunni-majority country) would feel constrained to intervene. Turkey has already made military incursions into Iraq in hot pursuit of Kudistan Workers’ Party (PKK) guerrillas who have attacked military and civilian targets in eastern Turkey.

Turkey’s embassy in Baghdad was targeted by (inaccurate) rocket fire twice last week.

Turkey’s Erdogan and Iraq’s al-Maliki are also at odds over Syria, with Erdogan calling for Bashar al-Assad to step down and al-Maliki more or less supporting the al-Assad government. (Al-Maliki is said to fear that the secular Baath Party might be overthrown by Sunni radicals who will give aid to Sunni insurgents in Iraq).

Turkey: Intervention in Syria: What Next? — Ruşen Çakır:

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s interview on Al Arabiya channel can be defined as a milestone in Ankara’s Syria politics. Of course, I’m referring to Davutoğlu’s open pronouncement of the possibility of Turkey’s intervention in Syria. Let’s remember the foreign minister’s words first.

“If the regime continues to kill protesters, then this goes beyond being a matter for Turkey but will become an international issue. Then, that case calls for United Nations intervention. Turkey, in the 1980s, called the United Nations to intervene to protect the Kurds from Saddam’s atrocities after the Halabja massacre. If the Arab League initiative fails and murders continue, Turkey will not hesitate to support the U.N. decision that anticipates an intervention in Syria.”

Let’s not be unfair to him. Davutoğlu is talking about an intervention in the case of a situation where several conditions must mature. In other words, the Baath regime will continue to massacre its own people and other initiatives will fail to prevent this. The U.N. will decide on a resolution and Turkey will intervene. (Indeed, here, we need to pay attention to the stress in the sentence “Turkey will not hesitate.”) When the course of events of today is reviewed, we can see that the probability of this scenario of coming true is high.

…..Frankly, Ankara has openly taken a stance against the Bashar al-Assad regime for some time, which personally does not bother me and I think this was way over due. It was more bothersome that close relations with the al-Assad family were established, ….But a significant portion of today’s Syrian opposition segments were nothing more than “Baath lovers” in line with the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government’s approach.

Possible outcomes

It’s obvious that an international intervention, in which Turkey will participate, will create extremely dangerous results and our country will be negatively affected by those. First of all, we face the risk of a sectarian conflict. As Davutoğlu emphasized in the same interview, the Syrian people took to the streets as an extension of the Arab Spring for a more democratic administration to replace the oppressive Baath regime, but in time, the reaction also became directed at not only the political power, but also the Nusayri (Alawite) minority that supported it.

Even though there are more differences than similarities between the Nusayris and the Shiites, this risk should not be completely disregarded given that, together with the effect of the strategic partnership between Tehran and Damascus, Sunni-Nusayri tension in Syria could spread to the entire region as a Sunni-Shiite conflict. There will, necessarily, be reverberations of this bitter development in Turkey.

In the event that an international intervention in Syria (one that could last long) triggers a civil war, the stance to be adopted by the Kurds in this country directly interests Ankara. There are serious claims that the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has recently re-established very strong relations with the Baath regime and that al-Assad may use this organization as a tool to blackmail Ankara.

As a result, it is good and it is correct to side with the people against the Syrian regime, but it is not wise to side with military intervention.

Ruşen Çakır is a columnist for daily Vatan in which this piece appeared on Jan 23. It was translated into English by the Daily News staff.

Syrians won’t go along with Obama’s wishes, RT, 25 January,

President Obama’s promise to bring “strong and stable democracy” to Syria alarms its population, which sees the shining examples of Iraq and Libya and realizes what fate awaits it, says Dr. Ali Muhammad, editor-in-chief of the website Syria Tribune… “Every Syrian knows that the country will never go back to what it was one year ago, but at the same time the change will be decided by the Syrian people, not by the US or anybody else,”argues Dr. Ali Muhammad…..

Hind Aboud Kabawat: The Assad delusion, 2012-01-30
National Post, By Hind Aboud Kabawat

…Ten months later, I have come to rue those words; but they do, however, capture the ambiguity that many Syrian liberals (like myself) felt about the best way to modernize Syrian society and democratize the Syrian state. We wanted political change, absolutely, but we also coveted stability. And even as the barricades went up on the streets of Cairo and Sana, Tripoli and Tunis, we believed that Damascus and Aleppo, Homs and Hama would be spared such chaos. How wrong we were….

DIPLOMACY TO REMOVE ASSAD GAINS MOMENTUM, By David Pollock and Andrew J. Tabler
WINEP – January 25, 2012

President Obama’s State of the Union address Tuesday evening had much to say about the economy, but relatively little about foreign policy. Yet one line from that brief section stands out: “And in Syria, I have no doubt that the Assad regime will soon discover that the forces of change can’t be reversed, and that human dignity can’t be denied.”

This sentence, which puts the United Stated firmly behind the demise of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, is all the more striking because it followed so closely upon the president’s description of Qadhafi as “gone.” Beyond the mere fact of singling out Syria’s government for such dishonorable mention, Obama’s statement used two very specific words that loom large in a context where every word reflected deliberate decision. First was his use of “soon,” indicating an assessment that Assad does not have much time left in power. Second was “regime,” indicating an official U.S. expectation that not just Assad personally but his whole ruling clique must also go.

Equally significant were the president’s next lines, which suggest that Washington is planning diplomatic rather than direct physical intervention in the Syrian crisis. Affirming that “we have a huge stake in the outcome” of “this incredible transformation” in the Arab region, President Obama nonetheless acknowledged that “its end remains uncertain” and that “it is ultimately up to the people of the region to decide their own fate.” Even so, he asserted that the United States will “stand against violence and intimidation” and “support policies that lead to strong and stable democracies.”

And, in fact, U.S. and international diplomacy aimed at removing Assad is quickly gaining momentum. An Arab League ministerial meeting on January 22 found that the Syrian government’s “partial progress” was “not enough” and urged the establishment within two months of a “national unity government” based on a “serious political dialogue” with the opposition — all under the authority of a vice president, rather than President Assad. Not surprisingly, the Assad regime rejected this plan, arguing that it went beyond the Arab League’s authority, violated Syrian sovereignty, and represented “a conspiratorial scheme hatched against Syria” for foreign intervention “led by the Qatari government.”

At the same time, the League’s report mandates an immediate referral of its plan to the UN Security Council. Qatar’s prime minister and minister of foreign affairs, Hamad bin Jassim, and Arab League secretary Nabil al-Araby are delegated with this task. In anticipation of this maneuver, intense behind-the-scenes Security Council consultations are now underway.

Over the last few days, Western countries led by France have drafted a Security Council resolution, with senior U.S. diplomats involved in these discussions in both Paris and New York. The draft demands that Syria cooperate fully with the UN high commissioner for human rights and the special Commission of Inquiry of the UN Human Rights Council, and allow “full access for humanitarian relief.” It requests the UN secretary-general to support the appointment of a new Arab League special envoy to Syria, which media reports speculate could be Egypt’s Mohammed ElBaradei, to supplement the largely ineffective Arab League monitoring mission in that strife-torn country. And, should the Assad regime fail to comply, the draft “encourages all States” to adopt political and economic sanctions similar to those outlined by the Arab League last November, including cutting ties with Syria’s central bank.

Significantly, the absence of mandatory sanctions from this draft resolution is calculated to help secure the necessary Russian support (or at least abstention) in the Security Council….

For all of the media bias, the blood of Syrians tells the story – The National,
Faisal Al Yafai, Jan 24, 2012

The clouds of conspiracy are gathering over Syria. With more than half of Syrians supporting President Bashar Al Assad, there has been a concerted effort by the western media to minimise his domestic support while maximising criticism of his failings. In particular, the effectiveness of the observer mission is questioned, to speed the day when the United Nations authorises Nato intervention and ushers into power a more pro-western Syrian government.

That, at least, is the analysis of the situation that has been best articulated by Jonathan Steele in the Guardian and Aisling Byrne of the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum website. It is not wrong. But it is not right, either. Very few of the separate claims of this theory are inaccurate, but the way they are strung together misses the nature of what is happening in the Levant….

‘Why we have a responsibility to protect Syria’ (Shadi Hamid, The Atlantic)

“There are a number of reasons why intervention,today, would be premature…But it may not be premature in a month or in two. The international community must begin considering a variety of military options — the establishment of “safe zones” seems the most plausible — and determine which enjoys the highest likelihood of causing more good than harm. This is now — after nearly a year of waiting and hoping — the right thing to do. It is also the responsible thing to do.”

Syria: Arab League roadmap is ‘attack on national sovereignty’

“Syria rejects the decisions taken which are outside an Arab working plan, and considers them an attack on its national sovereignty and a flagrant interference in internal affairs,” state TV quoted an official as saying.

Grave abuses by both sides – that was the conclusion of the report by the League of Arab States (LAS) monitors. The League’s foreign ministers called on President Bashar al-Assad to delegate power to his vice president and form a national unity government with the opposition.

The Syrian official reacting to the Arab League’s call said the regional body should instead “assume its responsibilities for stopping the financing and arming of terrorists,” the television channel reported.

“Unanswered Questions About Syria Intervention”, by Jeremy Pressman

This is a must read.

Over the Horizon: Syria, Iran and the Enduring Allure of Airpower
By Robert Farley | 25 Jan 2012

Who shall we bomb next? Pundits and commentators have begun to fall over themselves declaring the necessity of launching military campaigns against Syria and Iran — the former to prevent a humanitarian disaster and the latter to forestall the development of a nuclear weapon. The catalyst for this enthusiasm is the success of NATO’s aerial campaign in Libya, a war that apparently vindicated the long-standing promise of advanced, precision-guided airpower to cheaply and easily solve inconvenient political problems. Unfortunately, the rediscovered enthusiasm for intervention demonstrates only that the foreign policy punditocracy is committed to serially mislearning the lessons of airpower in war…..

Steven Cook argues that the United States and NATO ought to start seriously discussing intervention in Syria. If not and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is left to massacre his political opponents, he wonders, what message will it send to the international community about the right to protect? Anne-Marie Slaughter reluctantly concurs, suggesting that Western military power could ensure the security of safe harbors and corridors for Syrian civilians. …

Former CIA unit chief Michael Scheuer discusses Syria and the Arab spring (h-t Camille Otrakji’s Syria Page)
Monday, January 16th, 2012

Michael Scheuer confirms the United States’ involvement in attempts to overthrow the Syrian regime. He explains Washington’s dilemma in dealing with the Arab Spring and how Washington’s “mindless pursuit of secular democracy” in fact created anarchy and empowered extremist Islamists.

سيريا بوليتيك ينشر السيرة الذاتية “الجبهوية” لعضو مجلس الشعب “المنشقعماد عبدالكريم غليون” - Syria Politic publishes the biography of the member of parliament who defected

Not short, tight or shiny: new dress code could see women forced into veils – Niqash

New guidelines on how the Iraqi government’s female employees should dress have caused a furore. The conservative Ministry of Women’s affairs says it is protecting female dignity while women’s rights advocates say it’s an attack on personal freedoms. by Kholoud Ramzi in Baghdad (26.01.2012)more

Watching Syria Sadly by Professor Brian Stoddard

EU tightens sanctions on Syria
English.news.cn 2012-01-23

BRUSSELS, Jan. 23 (Xinhua) — Foreign Ministers of the European Union (EU) on Monday decided to tighten restrictive measures against Syria.

The foreign affairs council of the EU added 22 persons responsible for “human rights violations” and eight entities “financially supporting the regime” to the list of those subject to an asset freeze and a ban from entering the EU.

This brings the total number of entities targeted by an asset freeze to 38 and the number of people subject to an asset freeze and a visa ban to 108.

In response to the violence in Syria, the EU has gradually imposed a comprehensive set of restrictive measures on Syria, including an arms embargo, a ban on the import of Syrian crude oil and on new investment in the Syrian petrol sector.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton said: “Today’s decision will put further pressure on those who are responsible for the unacceptable violence and repression in Syria.”

“The message from the European Union is clear: the crackdown must stop immediately. We will continue to do all we can to help the Syrian people achieve their legitimate political rights,” said Ashton.

Against Syrian anger, Assad’s sect feels fear
By Mariam Karouny, DAMASCUS | Wed Feb 1, 2012

Syria’s Assad regime is doomed, but the battle will be long and bloody

The Syrian regime headed by Bashar Assad is doomed in the long run, but is likely to last longer than most believe. In December, the leader of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood stated that President Assad would fall “in the next few months”, the US State Department proclaimed Assad to be a “dead man walking”, and Israel’s defense minister insisted that Assad would fall in a matter of weeks. This has turned out to be wishful thinking.

The Assads stand atop the last minoritarian regime in the Levant and thus seem destined to fall in this age of popular revolt. When they do, the post-colonial era will draw to a final close. Following World War II, minorities took control in every Levant state thanks to colonial divide-and-rule tactics and the fragmented national community that bedeviled the states of the region. Unique in this was Palestine, for the Jewish minority was able to transform itself into the majority at the expense of Palestine’s Muslims and Christians. Neither the Christians of Lebanon nor the Sunnis of Iraq were so lucky or ambitious. Nevertheless, both clung to power at the price of dragging their countries into lengthy civil wars. The Alawis of Syria seem determined to repeat this violent plunge to the bottom. It is hard to determine whether this is due to the rapaciousness of a corrupt elite, to the bleak prospects that the Alawi community faces in a post-Assad Syria, or to the weak faith that many in the region place in democracy and power-sharing formulas. Whatever the reason, Syria’s transition away from minority rule is likely to be lengthy and violent. Levantine history suggests this as a rule.

There are three main reasons why the Assad regime is likely to last well into 2013–if not longer–despite Syria’s rapidly deteriorating economic and security conditions.

The first is the strength of the regime compared to the opposition. The military has not turned against Syria’s president. It is a professional army, which so far has a monopoly on heavy weapons in Syria. Important government officials have not defected in significant numbers. This loyalty is due in no small part to the fact that the Assad family has prepared for this moment of popular, Sunni revolt for 40 years. It has packed sensitive posts with loyal Alawis and Baathists. Some analysts estimate that 80 percent of Syria’s officer corps is Alawi. The main strike-forces, such as the Republican Guard led by Bashar’s brother, is Alawi to the man. An ambassador in Syria’s Foreign Ministry recently claimed that 60 percent of Syria’s Foreign Service officers are Alawi and only 10 percent Sunni. The sectarian nature of the elite elements of the security forces ensures a high degree of loyalty and willingness to fight. The broader Alawi community is also likely to remain loyal to the regime, even as the economy deteriorates. Almost all Alawi families have a least one member in the security forces as well as additional members working in civilian ministries, such as education or agriculture. Most fear collective punishment for the sins of the Baathist era, whether this means trials, the loss of jobs, or even worse (one irresponsible Sunni sheikh threatened that the Alawis will be ground into mince meat when defeated).

The second reason the Assad regime is likely to survive into 2013 is the disorganization and factionalism of the opposition. Through much of 2011, the Syrian opposition hoped that by remaining leaderless, as had revolutionaries in Egypt and Tunisia, the regime could be brought down largely by peaceful means: either because Bashar Assad would surrender power, a coup would dislodge him, sanctions would cause elite defections and collapse, or growing demonstrations would achieve a Tahrir square moment. By the end of 2012, these scenarios seemed ever more unlikely, and the opposition has been forced to think seriously about developing a trusted leadership, unifying its ranks, and coming up with a realistic military option to defeat the Syrian army. These objectives still seem far off

The Syrian National Council, Syria’s leading opposition coalition, remains highly factionalized and has found it difficult to unite with other opposition parties. The mere fact that the SNC membership has felt compelled to limit its leaders to a three-month term testifies to the high level of internal dissent. Burhan Ghalioun, the capable and savvy secular leader, is distrusted by many Islamists in the SNC as well as younger activists who are leading the struggle on Syria’s streets. Only recently was he denounced by members of his own party for being a traitor and dictatorial when he prematurely announce a unification plan with the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change, a coalition of leftist parties led by Haytham Manaa.

Just as important as the opposition’s political weaknesses, however, are its military limitations. The Free Syrian Army being assembled in Turkey under the leadership of Colonel Riyadh al-Asaad is no match for the Syrian army. Although armed opponents of the regime are an important development, their size, structural limitations, lack of heavy weapons, and limited command and control mean they do not yet present a real danger or alternative to the Syrian military. In fact, many analysts insist that most fighting is being done by small units organized on the local level that do not take orders from Col. Asaad or other leaders, even if they call themselves members of the Free Syrian Army. What is more, many Syrians still do not accept the notion that the regime should be brought down by military means.

The third reason that the Assad regime is unlikely to be deposed soon is that foreign powers are not eager to intervene militarily in Syria. US President Barack Obama and European authorities would find it difficult not to support military strikes on the Syrian army if they were led by Turkey or the Arab League, but neither has shown an inclination to undertake such a risky adventure.

So long as the Syrian military leadership remains united, the opposition remains fragmented, and foreign powers remain on the sidelines, the Assad regime is likely to survive, but all three of these elements are changing, even if gradually, in the favor of the opposition. The predominant role of minorities in the governments of the region, which was universal at the end of the colonial period, is being brought to a violent conclusion.

-Published 25/1/2012 © bitterlemons-international.org
Joshua Landis is associate professor and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

See the other three essays on Bitterlemons’ site

“The regime’s prospects are better than two months ago but remain dim,” Karim Emile Bitar

The Syrian revolution is now entering a new, more ominous phase. The regime has been considerably weakened and isolated. The Arab League’s mission has ended in a fiasco. The economy is in tatters. The opposition’s protests continue unabated. But the main pillars of President Bashar Assad’s support are still holding on. ….

A militarization of the revolution would empower the most radical elements, as it did in Libya, and render future democratization much more difficult. A foreign intervention would open Pandora’s box.

Those who would like Assad to fall are now confronted with the old Machiavelli vs. Kant philosophical dilemma: does the end justify the means or do the means determine the end? A comprehensive study, published by Columbia University Press and analyzing dozens of past cases, suggests that the latter is true. It indicates that if a dictator is overthrown through peaceful struggle, there is a 51 percent chance of a successful democratic transition after five years. In case of an armed struggle, the chances are only three percent.

The Syrian opposition is understandably impatient to bring Assad down and breathe freely. It should nonetheless meditate on these figures.

“Yes and no,” by Elias Samo

Can the Syrian regime survive? That is a question only a crystal ball can definitively answer. My analysis of the two primary components of the Syrian regime–a pyramidal political leadership under President Bashar Assad and a one-party political structure under the Baath party–leads me to believe the answer is “yes and no”. Yes, Assad will survive, and no, the political structure of one-party Baath rule will not….

“A sinking ship,” by Michel Nehme

Domestically, the mutiny in the Syrian army is slowly accelerating. It is beginning to pose a tangible threat to ! the military establishment, despite tight control by Baathist officers. The economy is gradually deteriorating–an indication of a long process that ultimately will topple the regime. The issue now is not whether the regime has been able to withstand or escape the storm, but rather the sense that the regime is slowly and daily getting weaker. Yet when it will finally collapse is not something that can be predicted, due to a variety of regional and international considerations….

But even within the Gulf, important dissagreements have opened up. The Emir of Qatar has spoken out in favor of Arab military intervention. Saudi Arabia is not so keen on this idea. It has to deal with the glass house factor. the Saudis are queasy about a precedent for miiltiary intervention by the Arab League being set to promote democracy. What about Bahrain or even the Shia of the Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia who have been demonstrating for change and the overthrow of the Saudi household?

Arab League calls for Assad to step aside, without the credible threat of foreign intervention, will not change much. Assad remains confident that he can contain if not beat the opposition. The UN is as divided over Syria as is the Arab League. No country is eager to lead a military intervention in Syria. Syria has become a hot-potato. International organizations are turning to each other, drawing a long face of horror over the Syrian situation and saying, “Do something. You first.”

‘The Arab League to Syria’s President: It’s time for you to go’ (Rania Abouzeid, Time)

“But instead of diplomatic politesse, proceedings were thrown into disarray after Saudi Arabia, stepped out of the background role it has played so far in the Syria crisis, to forcefully push for an end to the Syrian government’s ferocious crackdown against its opponents. For months, Qatar has taken the lead on Syria. In a move that likely persuaded other countries, especially Gulf states, to take a stronger line against Damascus, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told his counterparts that his country would withdraw its observers from the much-criticized League monitoring mission in Syria due to the continued shedding of “blood that is dear tous all.”"

(Comment by JL) But Saudi did not second the Emir of Qatar’s call for Arab military intervention, an indication that it is weak on Syria. While in Saudi Arabia last week, I had the opportunity to quiz a well placed prince on this issue. He said that Saudi Arabia did not know what was motivating the Emir of Qatar to be so out-spoken on Syria but that Saudi Arabia would not participate in or encourage Arab military intervention in Syria. President Obama would find it very difficult not to back up the Arab League or Turkey if either led military intervention in Syria. NATO as well. But the UN cannot lead without a Russian “Yes” vote in the Security Council, and the US will not do so on its own. Saudi Arabia’s withdrawal from the Arab League monitoring mission is not an expression of its desire to lead, its interest in making a “forceful push” on the issue, or that it is “stepping out of its background role” on the Syria crisis, I suspect.

From a Friend in Damascus

With syp hitting 74, prices will soon go insane. Impossible for many to make ends meet. Even extended family members are running out of money by the 10th of every month. This military regime is very hard, if not impossible, to bring down. When it comes to people’s lives….simply forget it. A total meltdown. Everything has doubled in price in less than a year. Totally unprepared these guys were and are.

   بانوراما العربية: الدكتور برهان غليون، الأستاذ سمير عيطة Al-Arabiyya  Ghalioun and Samir Aita discuss the Free Syrian Army and armed resistance in Syria

Syria to Start Managed Float of Currency Next Week, Central Bank Head Says
By Massoud A. Derhally – Jan 20, 2012 7:02 AM CT

Syria’s Central Bank Governor Adib Mayaleh. Photographer: Joseph Eid/AFP/Getty Images

 Syria will introduce a managed float of its currency next week, central bank Governor Adib Mayaleh said. The move will allow the pound to devalue after demand for foreign currency drove a surge in black-market rates.

“We will have a partial managed float, allow the rate to be determined by the market and intervene when necessary,” Mayaleh said in a phone interview from Damascus today. “If we see a rate, like that of 70 pounds now, which I don’t like, then we will intervene, and next week there will be a positive intervention by the central bank with the injection of foreign currency into the market.”

The pound traded officially at about 47 to the dollar before the start of protests against President Bashar al-Assad in mid-March. As the uprising spread, the central bank raised the rate to about 54 pounds in December and 57 pounds early this month. The currency traded at as much as 70 pounds per dollar on Syria’s black market this week.

From Guardian Blog

Adib Mayaleh, the central bank governor, told the FT (behind paywall) the exchange rate had “jumped a lot of steps” and they needed to control it. ….Syrian oil minister, Sufian Allaw, said sanctions were biting: “We have suffered important losses as a result of our inability to export crude oil and petroleum products.”

Syrians cope with profound economic crisis as regime tries to crush revolt, By BASSEM MROUE

Jordan’s King Abdullah: Coming Weeks Critical for Syria, Assad, Arab League, PBS NewsHour

King Abdullah II of Jordan, the first Arab leader to urge President Assad to step down, sat down with Margaret Warner Thursday to discuss his expectation of more killings in Syria, the Arab League’s role in quelling unrest there as well as the latest …

“The problem with Syria — and we’ve been here in Washington for a few days talking to our colleagues here. And I’ve been in interaction with my colleagues around the world and the Middle East — nobody has an answer for Syria. And that is the most disturbing thing.”

… “And so, if I can predict what will be happening over the near future, again, the relationship between the Arab League and the U.N. on how to take it to the next step, understanding from our experience last year that, when the Arab League comes together as a bloc and makes a decision, it’s much more easier for the international community to then move to the next phase.”

Iranian Foreign Minister on Charlie Rose Show says Iran does not send arms to Syria

Charlie Rose: … there is a sense that … Iran is supplying the Syrians with weapons…

Mohammad Khazaee: …You know, Charlie, on Syrian issue, we follow our principles. The first point is that we believe that government should listen to their people. We have made it clear. ….Second, we do not, and we have not sent any arms to Syria. …

Mohammad Khazaee: ….we have some evidences that arms have been sent by … France, to Syria to support the militia group and opposition groups ….

Iraqi government and militias supporting Pres. Assad in Syria. by Joel Wing

Joel asked me, “why Iraq and Syria have improved relations so much after Damascus was one of the main supporters of the insurgency?” My answer:

1. Because of the US presence and influence in Iraq. Both Iran and Iraq tried to push the US out of the region, when the US threatened both from Iraq. President Bush had an ambitious plan to reform the Greater M. E., which included pushing Syria out of Lebanon and ultimately regime-change in Damascus.
2. Negotiating tactic. Once the US was on the ropes in Iraq, Syria moderated its support of the insurgency in an effort to convince the US to make a trade: the reduction of US sanctions against Syria and rekindling negotiations over Golan and Lebanon in exchange Syrian help in Iraq.
3. Now that the US is out of Iraq and the Syrian revolution is under-girded by a Sunni insurgency in Syria, Damascus no longer has an interest in supporting the Sunni militias across the boarder. Both Iraq and Damascus have the common goal of suppressing Sunni militias and supporting Iran.

Ali Allawi on Iraq:

The Middle East is today experiencing a twofold upheaval of immense proportions: a dramatic acceleration of climate change, water shortages, urban growth, environmental degradation, persistent economic and resource imbalances, and population explosions that coincide with wars, invasions, foreign interventions, civil and religious strife, and mass uprisings. And the longue durée is now exerting its influence on Iraq.

The livelihood of Iraqis is overly dependent on a state that is entirely reliant on a single resource. Agriculture has effectively collapsed; the great river systems of Mesopotamia have shriveled; trade routes based on Iraq’s unique geography have vanished; and transport links have atrophied. Merchants and entrepreneurs are merely recyclers of state-owned and state-generated wealth and a previously open and culturally and religiously accommodating society has been replaced by beleaguered communities locked in laagers.

The Arab successor states to the Ottoman Empire have all proved to be unstable, prone to violence and easy targets of foreign intervention and control. Left unchecked, Iraq will remain hostage to the turbulent region in which it finds itself — and to the price of oil.

Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood tells world to isolate Assad (peacefully?)
19/01/2012

BEIRUT, (Reuters) – The leader of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood said world powers should pile diplomatic pressure on President Bashar al-Assad and he called for a no-fly zone and “safe zones” to be set up to help the Syrian leader’s opponents.

Mohammad Shaqfa told Reuters that the Arab League, which has sent monitors to assess Syria’s implementation of a plan to end 10 months of violence, should press the U.N. Security Council to take “deterrent measures” against Assad….

بيان من مواطنون علويون تضامنا مع الثورة السورية

Pledge of solidarity with the Revolution by 106 Alawi, Syrians – half women. On Syria Politic

Russia warns West it risks war over Syria, Iran – January 20, 2012

MOSCOW: The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has warned outside encouragement of anti-government uprisings in the Middle East and north Africa could lead to ”a very big war that will cause suffering not only to countries in the region but also to states far beyond its boundaries”.

Mr Lavrov’s annual news conference on Wednesday was largely a critique of Western policies in Iran and Syria, which he said could lead to a spiral of violence.

He said Russia would use its position on the United Nations Security Council to veto any UN authorisation of military strikes against forces loyal to the government of Syria’s President, Bashar al-Assad.

Rezan Bahri Shaykhmus, Chairman of the Kurdish Future Movement’s Office of General Communications:
»While a people’s revolution is taking place throughout Syria, the Kurdish Patriotic Conference is arguing and struggling over money«

KURDWATCH, January 19, 2012—Rezan Bahri Shaykhmus (b. 1962, married, four children) is the chairman of the Kurdish Future Movement’s Office of General Communications. The engineer lives in Syria. In a conversation with KurdWatch, Shaikhmus speaks about the Future Movement’s political work following the death of its speaker Mishʿal at-Tammu. [Read the interview]

Qatar: Kingmakers in Syria? by Jason Pack and Shashank Joshi

Opposition members argue that the Free Syrian Army based in Turkey are spearheading and commanding the fight in Zabadani. Nir Rosen, who has recently come out of Syria after a two month stay, argues on al-Jazeera (linked below) that the opposition claim of the existence of a centrally commanded Free Syrian Army is a myth. He claims that the militias that are springing up in different towns are locally commanded and organized and do not take orders from Col. Asaad or his FSA in Turkey. If this is true, it suggests that multiple militias are emerging, which may eventually struggle for command of Syria and take the place of the Syrian Army, unless they can negotiate some agreement on a central command. In the meantime, it is convenient for the opposition to call opposition forces the Free Syrian Army.

Film of the death of of the French journalist near the end of the clip. Friends explain that this film was taken in Homs in an Alawite neighborhood, which was hit by a mortar, killing a number of people on the street and the French journalist. Opposition sources argue the mortar was launched by government operatives in order to make the opposition look bad for killing civilians and to stir up civil war. Government sources blame it on opposition forces who are firing on Alawi districts. They argue that mortars cost only $400 and can be smuggled from Lebanon and Iraq without much trouble. This film clip is proof of how difficult it is to understand what is going on based on YouTube movie clips.

Sky News broadcast this Homs story from a team that visited the Alawi and Christian neighborhoods of Homs. As the reporter explains, the pro-Assad sentiment and reports of torture by opposition members expressed in this story are as one sided, but perhaps as representative, as other reports from opposition neighborhoods, such as the BBC report “Syria Undercover” broadcast a month ago. It is worth noting that Alawis and Christians only make up about 20% of Syria.

No plan to send Arab troops to Syria: League source
CAIRO | Sun Jan 15, 2012

(Reuters) – The Arab League has not received any official request or suggestion that it send Arab troops to Syria, an Arab representative to the Cairo-based League told Reuters on Sunday.

Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, said on Saturday that Arab troops may have to step in to halt the bloodshed in Syria since the start of protests against President Bashar al-Assad in March.

“There is no official suggestion to send Arab troops to Syria at the current time … There has been no Arab or a non-Arab agreement on a military intervention in Syria for the time being,” the representative to the League said.

Why deny Syria is in a civil war?
Posted on January 16, 2012 by Jeremy Pressman

Erica Chenoweth has a concise post arguing that Syria now meets the academic definition of a civil war. Her thoughts beg an interesting follow-up question: if Syria is in a civil war, why isn’t it being called a civil war?

In the United States, one possibility is that the Obama administration prefers a narrative of democratic protest against a brutal regime. A civil war, which means both pro- and anti-regime violence, muddies that narrative. For instance, in late December, a Syrian opposition figure said he told (h/t syriacomment.com) US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about a nascent guerilla movement:

To my surprise, she asked that the defectors lay down their arms. That’s an odd request. Why didn’t they ask the rebels in Libya to lay down their arms? How can they do it if at any moment they can be fired at and murdered? It’s impractical.

If Secretary Clinton is still trying to discourage Syrian opposition violence, then admitting a civil war is underway would not be helpful. (Are Clinton or other US officials afraid that a civil war would be a pathway to sectarian fighting and spreading regional violence?)…..

Syrian MP, Tribal Chief Go into Exile
by Naharnet Newsdesk

A leading MP and an opposition figure who heads Syria’s largest tribe announced they have defected and gone into exile, in interviews broadcast on Monday on Al-Arabiya television.

“I have come to Turkey to activate the opposition. The Syrian revolution is our path. The country’s youth are making the greatest sacrifices for a better future,” Al-Baqqara tribal chief Nawaf al-Bashir told the satellite channel.

Bashir said he had been coerced to appear on state television in Syria to praise the reforms which President Bashar al-Assad says he has launched.

He was a key supporter of the so-called Damascus Declaration which opposition leaders issued in 2005 to press for reform. He says he has been interrogated by the security services more than 75 times.

MP Imad Ghalioun, a member of parliament’s budget committee, said he had chosen Egypt as a base to try to help the opposition achieve “freedom and dignity” for the Syrian people in a future democratic state.

Fear of Civil War Mounts in Syria as Crisis Deepens
By ANTHONY SHADID

Ian Black reports: Sipping tea in a smoky Damascus cafe, Adnan and his wife, Rima, look ordinary enough: an unobtrusive, thirtysomething couple winding down at the end of the working day in one of the tensest cities in the world. But like much else in the Syrian capital, they are not what they first seem: [...]

Syria Report

Resolute Syrian President to Use ‘Iron Fist’, Debate Over International Intervention Propels Disunity Among Opposition
On Tuesday, January 10 during an address at Damascus University, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad highlighted ongoing government reforms and vowed to continue the government’s fight against terrorism and international conspirators. For its part, the Arab League observer mission in Syria has already been deemed a failure; violence has heavily intensified with over 400 killed since the first of its members arrived in country two weeks ago. At the same time, fuel and heating oil shortages, as well as a growing dearth of affordable food stuffs, are posing serious challenges to nearly all.

Videos: Patrick Seale and Nir Rosen on Syria Thanks to War in Context

Syrian opposition row over foreign military action nixes unity effort
By Ashish Kumar Sen
The Washington Times, Friday, January 6, 2012

Pro-Syrian regime protesters shout slogans and hold portraits of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration Jan. 4, 2012, in Damascus, Syria, to show solidarity for Assad. (Associated Press)Pro-Syrian regime protesters shout slogans and hold portraits of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration Jan. 4, 2012, in Damascus, Syria, to show solidarity for Assad. (Associated Press)

Efforts by the U.S. and the Arab League to work with a unified Syrian opposition have been stymied, mostly due to two opposition groups’ disagreement on foreign military action to oust President Bashar Assad.

A weeks-long effort to build a coalition between Syria’s two main opposition groups — the Syrian National Council and the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria (NCB) — collapsed this week after it was reported that the groups had agreed to reject foreign intervention.

News of the deal caused an uproar in the Syrian National Council’s ranks, and the leadership quickly accused the NCB of passing off as a final agreement what they had considered talking points for an Arab League-sponsored opposition conference later this month.

A fractured opposition complicates international engagement and casts doubt about a post-Assad government.

The Syrian National Council supports international intervention, and in a meeting on Tuesday, its executive committee officially rejected the purported agreement with the NCB.

“We didn’t want to be on record saying we are against foreign intervention. We are for foreign intervention, but we don’t want to exchange a bad regime for an occupier,” said George Jabboure Netto, an Syrian National Council member.

It would be up to the U.N. Security Council to decide what intervention, including airstrikes, is required, he said. “We are not going to dictate how they should go about this.”

Press Release
SNC and FSA Agree on Activating Coordination Mechanism

A delegation from the Syrian National Council (SNC) met with the leadership of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) on Thursday, January 12, 2012. The goal of the meeting was to increase the level of coordination and activate mechanisms of communications between them. The delegation, headed by Dr. Burhan Ghalioun, extensively discussed the situation on the ground and the organizational capacity of the FSA with Colonel Riad Al-Asa’ad and his deputy Malek Kurdi. Included in the discussion was an assessment of needs including reorganization and restructuring of FSA units. The parties agreed to formulate a detailed plan, to include the reorganization of FSA units and brigades, and the creation of a format to accommodate within FSA ranks additional officers and soldiers, especially senior military officials, who side with the revolution.

“Is Al-Qaeda Infiltrating Syria Through Lebanon’s Beka’a Valley?”
by Nick Heras for Jamestown

Syria politics: Pride before a fall?
January 10th 2012, FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, has delivered his fifth speech since the popular uprising against his regime erupted in March 2011. Many of the themes were familiar—blaming the crisis on foreign conspiracies and Islamist terrorists, and offering promises of reform—and Mr Assad reiterated his resolve to crush the uprising by force. There was also a note of satisfaction that his regime has managed to check the efforts of some Arab League member states to press actively for UN Security Council intervention. However, this respite may not last.

The last time Mr Assad made a public appearance was on August 1st when he made a speech to mark army day. Since then Syria’s internal conflict has become steadily more violent and the regime has faced increasingly determined pressure from the EU, Turkey and, most recently, the Arab League. The death toll among Syrian civilians is now thought to exceed 6,000; the regime claims that more than 2,000 members of its security forces have been killed. There have also been two bomb attacks in Damascus that the government has tried to blame on al-Qaida, but which the opposition claims to have been staged by the regime in order to validate its narrative about external terrorist threats. The EU and Turkey have imposed economic sanctions, which have had a severe impact on the regime’s finances, and the Arab League, having suspended Syria’s membership, threatened to impose its own sanctions, until the government agreed terms for the dispatch of Arab monitors tasked with overseeing a reduction in regime violence against unarmed protesters…….

Discord

Another positive development from Mr Assad’s perspective has been the discord in the ranks of some of his opponents. The Syrian National Council (SNC) has tried to project itself as the most representative force among the opposition, having drawn together many of its strands, including the Muslim Brotherhood, exiled liberal intellectuals, Kurdish groups and activists from the underground local co-ordinating committees (LCCs) operating within Syria. However, another opposition group, the National Co-ordinating Body (NCB), some of whose activists remain in full view inside Syria, has become a thorn in the side of the SNC. Representatives of the two groups met in Cairo at the start of January, and news emerged suggesting that they had agreed on a common platform, including a rejection of international intervention and an agreement to negotiate with regime elements not directly implicated in violence. The SNC quickly denied that any such agreement had been reached and that the NCB had leaked a discussion document; the NCB denied this, and accused the SNC of backtracking. The NCB’s external leader, Haitham Mannaa, has derided his rivals as being a toxic mixture of Islamists and neo-conservatives, and has insisted that Syria’s future should remain an exclusively Arab concern. Bourhan Ghalioun, the chairman of the SNC, said that Mr Assad’s speech had made it abundantly clear that the regime had no intention of complying with the Arab League’s demands, and that the only way forward was to fully engage the international community in affording protection to the Syrian civilian population. According to the LCCs more than 30 people were killed by regime security forces on the day of Mr Assad’s speech, the majority of them in the north-eastern city of Deir al-Zor.

Fantasy reforms

Mr Assad devoted much of the latter part of his speech to describing the progress that he had made with political reforms. He ticked off the law passed to lift the state of emergency, a political parties law (which he said had now resulted in the first new parties being licensed), a new election law, a media law and the staging of local elections in early December. He said that he had intended to pass an anti-corruption law, but that it had been delayed to allow for more study and consultation. The next major step would be to hold a referendum in early March to approve a new constitution drawn up by a committee appointed last year. Two to three months after the constitution is approved, there would be a general election for a new parliament—the mandate of the previous parliament ran out in April; the assembly has since reconvened on a provisional basis. Mr Assad sought to present these reforms as advancing with significant popular participation, thereby branding the entire opposition movement as being beyond the political pale. His reform project would look more credible if he could co-opt some elements of the opposition to become involved, but there is so far little sign that the regime will manage to pull this off. Even Mr Mannaa of the NCB still professes that his group’s objective is to bring down the Assad regime.

Points of weakness

For all his bravado, Mr Assad’s regime continues to survive only because of its brutal use of force and thanks to some residual support that it enjoys from Russia, China, a handful of Arab states, Iran and Venezuela (which has recently provided some shipments of petroleum products). The documenting of incidents by opposition groups and the dissemination of videos to media organisations has acted as a constraint on the regime, meaning that it has not been possible to raze whole areas to the ground along the lines of the subjugation of Hama in 1982. However, the accumulation of evidence that the regime has being carrying out a systematic campaign of gross abuses of human rights means that there is no chance of the Assad regime returning to some semblance of business as usual. Sanctions can only become stiffer. Whether through incremental foreign intervention or an internal collapse, or a combination of the two, it is probable that the Assad regime will eventually be brought down.

(Translated by Max Weiss.) Samar Yazbek on the Syrian Revolt is a Syrian writer and journalist. In August 2011 she wrote in these pages about her experience of being detained after a demonstration. She is one of the Beirut 39 authors.

Ehsani Writes:

The Syrian economy will soon suffer from what I will call a “financial crisis”. This will occur as credit write offs mount. The banking system will soon be hit with a wave of defaults at both the corporate and retail levels. The former will come about as the larger companies decide not to pay the banks. Most of the credit that they have been offered comes in the shape of overdrafts, bills discounting and letters of credit. Banks are exposed to this and their exposure exceeds that at the retail level (car loans for example). Some of the banks are already fearing that a number of businessmen will default and leave the country. Another very important thing to watch is the possibility that some state banks will default on payments to the private banking system. I am led to believe that this has already happened and that no one dares make the information more public. For now, they are treating the default as a “delayed payment” and so on. The private bank involved is of course starting to think it is a default. The Central Bank has been approached. No one can speculate if it will be liable or not as it may open the floodgates for other public banks. As you know, I have always highlighted the fiscal pressures on the government. The number of state employees and subsidies are simply unsustainable. The government will not be able to raise enough revenues to pay for such liabilities. They cannot borrow from the domestic or external sectors to bridge this gap. The only thing they may do is print more money. This will lead to inflation and loss of purchasing power as the Syrian Pound loses value.

How long will it take for the above financial crisis and/or fiscal crisis to show up publicly?

My sources continue to say that the answers is “Months”. They have been saying this of course for months. My own prediction is that it will take another year or two before things truly unfold. One thing to remember always is that Syrians are poor and more importantly are used to living well below global standards. The country has been through economic hardship many times over its recent modern past. It will take a lot of further pain to cause many to revolt in massive numbers.

Assessing the Risks of Military Intervention
Posted on Syria National Council website. Discourages US military intervention
Thursday, 05 January 2012
Assessing the Risks of Military Intervention

Executive Summary
Syria’s stability and its role in regional security politics have become steadily more uncertain since early 2011. The country has now experienced eight months of popular protests. Despite a lack of political cohesion or unity of purpose among the country’s opposition forces, rural areas and smaller cities continue to experience increasingly armed unrest. Meanwhile, the regime’s crackdown on dissent has shown little to no sign of abating as the country’s Alawite-led praetorian security forces attempt to restore order and quash unrest.

The chorus of international pressure on Syria has steadily increased. The US and EU have bolstered unilateral sanctions regimes, turned to the UN to deepen international pressure and have openly called for President Bashar Al-Asad to step aside. Turkey, until recently one of the regime’s closest allies, has been one of Syria’s most vocal critics. Lastly, the conservative Gulf monarchies, which continue to have reservations about regional popular unrest, have nonetheless pushed ahead with Arab League efforts to further isolate Syria.

On the one hand, local and expatriate Syrian forces opposed to the regime are backed by the West, and key Arab and Sunni states such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. On the other hand, the Al-Asad regime enjoys the support of its key regional ally Iran, support from Hezbollah in Lebanon, and strong international backing from Russia and China – countries that could play counter-revolutionary roles during what is increasingly looking like a “long winter of Arab discontent.”

A number of countries – including US NATO allies such as France and Turkey – increasingly entertain the prospect of creating a “humanitarian corridor” in Syria, potentially along the border with Turkey, to provide relief to both the Syrian population and dissident groups opposed to the Asad regime. These calls are echoed by Syrian opposition forces both in and outside Syria, including the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Istanbul-based Syrian National Council (SNC).

These calls do not address the real world challenges of creating such a “humanitarian corridor”: joint and combined military operations to suppress Syria’s air defense network, the need to neutralize the country’s air force, eliminating Syria’s asymmetric deterrence by containing unconventional threats from long range missiles (potentially armed with chemical or biological agents) and instability along the Golan Heights. They also do not address the risk of eventually having to engage loyal Syrian ground forces (including large concentrations of Alawites) that see few prospects in a post-Asad Syria.

Some consider military intervention in Syria to be a potential next step in shifting the regional balance in favor of the US and its allies. There is little question that sustained military operations in Libya would have been impossible without American logistics, targeting, command and control and sheer military capacity. In the case of Syria, military intervention is similarly unlikely to succeed without US involvement. However, military intervention, in the Middle East, let alone near the epicenter of the Arab-Israeli conflict, always involves serious risks and the impact of the law of unintended consequences.

There now is only limited support in the US, Europe, and the Arab world for direct intervention in Syria. However, the same could also have been said in the lead-up to operations in Libya. There are also reasons why the US might directly (or indirectly) take the lead in such efforts. The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq has left many questions about the future role and influence of the US, especially in the context of strategic competition with Iran. Instability in Syria presents Washington with the opportunity to undermine Iran’s regional posture, weaken or change the leadership of one of its key regional allies and potentially to downgrade the Islamic Republic’s role in the Arab-Israeli conflict through Hezbollah.

Syria is not Libya. While the later may be geographically much larger, it is a mostly empty country with a small population and very limited military capacity. In contrast, Syria’s population is more than three times larger than Libya, has almost 30 times the latter’s population density and a much larger and far more capable military overall. All of these factors complicate any calculus on military intervention in Syria, whether in terms of the level of potential military opposition, or with regards to the risk of high civilian casualties.

Opposition forces in Syria do not control territory, nor do they currently have military resources at their disposal to mount more than hit-and-run attacks. Most attacks by the FSA, while potentially coordinated, seem to have limited tactical or strategic depth and have yet to present a serious challenge to units loyal to the regime. While Libya’s opposition forces were divided, Syria’s are far more so, with little unity or agreement on the use of violence as a means to an end, and discord about the potential role of foreign intervention. The bulk of the security forces remain largely loyal as decades of over-recruiting from mainly rural minority groups bares fruit in terms of a strong corporatist military culture.

As the US and its allies weigh options for their next-steps in their Syria policies, they need to consider a number of key military and political factors that shape the prospects for any form of direct intervention:

• Syria’s military forces have many qualitative limitations, particularly in terms of modern weapons, combat readiness, and recent combat experience. They are, however, very large and months of protests, and concern over a potential Israeli strike on Iran, have made them more alert. They would need to acquire more modern and capable systems, such as major surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and a new sensor and C4I network to defeat a major US-led air operation, but it would take a far more advanced operation than was the case in Libya, and Syria’s leverage over Hezbollah, and Syrian long range missiles, air and coastal defense systems, and chemical and biological stockpiles present another kind of challenge.
• Despite defections and desertions, Syria’s praetorian military units may have little choice but to rally around the Asad regime. Given their limited prospects in a post-Asad Syria, heavily Alawite elite units with sizeable numbers of loyal Sunnis will likely perceive no alternatives to defending the regime in the event of wider intervention.
• Armed opponents of the regime, such as the Free Syrian Army, are an important development. However, their size, structural limitations, their predominantly Sunni character and as-of-yet limited command and control and offensive capabilities mean that the FSA has limited prospects in the short term for presenting a meaningful counterweight or alternative to the Syrian military. It is far more likely that the group’s insurgency will be used as a platform by the Asad regime to weaken an already divided Syrian opposition.
• Syria’s internal divisions are not new. However the Asad regime has managed to escalate Sunni-Alawite tension to the point that it has taken a life of its own and could be difficult to bring under control by any of the country’ political forces. This presents the risk that any escalation in Syria’s instability is likely to be sectarian, with real prospects for deepening divisions and broadening communal segregation. A divided Syria, once an unlikely worst case scenario for Syrians, grows increasingly probable as a result.
• Given Syria’s relatively high population density and the close proximity of civilian and military centers, it is unlikely that airstrikes in or near major urban centers – even with advanced targeting – will result in fewer casualties than the number of Syrians the Asad regime is thought to have killed so far.
• The Asad regime may react by pursing strategies that risk deeper regional destabilization as a means of deterring its regional and international opponents. It could also undertake desperate efforts to secure the future of the Alawite community. Syria’s potential responses – which include turning to regional proxies and its BCW-capable ballistic missile holdings – range in scale but all have potentially catastrophic consequences for Syria and the region. They also vary considerably based on what triggers Syrian escalation.
• In the event of further escalation in Syria, there is no certainty that regional spillover effects can be contained. Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq are susceptible to instability, as are Israel and Turkey. The scale of Sunni-Shi’a regional acrimony, the stalled Arab-Israeli peace process and uncertainty about future political forces warrant a degree of caution.
• The prospect of direct escalation in Syria may trigger kneejerk reactions from both Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah. This includes deflecting attention from Syria and heightening the costs of intervention by escalating tensions with Israel. Should intervention take place, there is little to prevent Iran and its allies in Lebanon and Iraq from undertaking potentially destabilizing action in Syria not unlike the cycle of violence in Iraq in the wake of the US invasion.
• Russia has emerged as a key player in balancing against further intervention in Syria. It is likely that Moscow will opt to heighten the stakes further through military posturing in the Mediterranean and “game-changing” military aid to Syria to deter the US and its allies from further escalating in Syria and raising the prospect of Libya-style intervention in the Levant. Other members of the so-called “BRICS” countries, crucially China, can also be expected to bandwagon with Russia at least at the level of the UN Security Council.

It could be argued that even without further escalation, a year of Syrian instability has been a critical setback not only to the Asad regime, but also to Iran and Hezbollah. Syria’s future will be governed largely by uncertainty and prolonged malaise. Given the range of risks, the US and its allies should consider carefully the potential costs and unintended consequences of further intervention in Syria.

تقرير إنساني من حمص: البحث عن الخبز والمازوت..فيديو في المشافي السرية
Syria Politic
Thursday, January 05, 2012

Arab League seeks UN help in Syria

Those who fear change in Syria
by Stephen Starr on Jan 5, 2012 • 12:00 pm

Three Reasons the Syrian National Council has rejected unification with the National Coordinating Body for Democracy.- al-Jazeerah video in Arabic
Samir Nashar (SNC) – Michel Kilo – Abdal Aziz al-Khaiyr (NCB) debate

1. They refuse to hold dialog with Assad because he has killed Syrians
2. They want foreign intervention to stop the killing.
3. The SNC supports the Free Syrian Army; whereas, the NCB does not

The case against military intervention in Syria
Marwa Daoudy – a lecturer at the Middle East Centre, St Antony’s College, the University of Oxford.

In keeping to its spirit and independence, the Syrian Revolution would remain just, powerful and legitimate….. foreign military intervention should, under all circumstances, be ruled out; domestically, resistance to the regime should also remain unarmed…..

The regime is still in control of the army and the security forces, despite a few thousand defections to the Free Syrian Army. To deter future dissent, tortured bodies have been found or returned to families. The regime’s increasing violence is also leading to the collapse of institutions and public authority. Declining incomes from oil sales and the public sector, and a freeze on trade with Turkey and the European Union are impacting on the population rather than the regime…..

The risk of civil war is looming. Syrians are now killing each other in isolated incidents on the basis of their uniforms, alleged loyalties and religious affiliations….. If the country was forced to accept an externally imposed no-fly zone or safe haven, the parts of the population that have so far kept away from the struggle would side with the regime in a surge of national pride and solidarity…..

Syrian Media Awaken Despite Clampdown
2012-01-05
By Alice Fordham

Jan. 5 (Washington Post) — BEIRUT — In the wake of a nine-month uprising, Syrian authorities are exerting ever-tighter control over the media, routinely censoring and detaining reporters, bloggers and photojournalists. But in spite of the risks, a flurry of new outlets has emerged to tell stories banned by the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

The magazines and journals — mostly produced outside the country and published online — offer an alternative to established newspapers and news channels in Syria…

MEMRI: U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman Calls for U.S. to Take Heed of Public Opinion, 2012-01-06

In a December 31, 2011 article titled “Embracing the New Year’s Opportunities for Change,” which appeared in the English edition of the London-based daily Al-Hayat, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman praised …

The problems started with the announcement of an agreement to unify both the NCB [sometimes call NCC] – National Coordination Body for Democratic Change [NCB] and the Syrian National Council [SNC] by Haytham Manaa and Burhan Ghaliun, the leaders of the two groups. Here is the first part of an announcement of the agreement put out by the NCB:

From the NCB – National Coordination Body for Democratic Change [NCB]
Agreement between the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change [NCB] and the Syrian National Council [SNC], to be submitted to the Secretariat of the Arab League as a joint political document for the Congress of the Syrian opposition that is expected to take place under the umbrella of the Arab League in January 2012.

Following talks lasting for more than a month involving the leadership of the NCB and the SNC, the parties agreed on the following:
1 – Rejection of any foreign military intervention that affects the sovereignty and independence of the country. The Arab intervention is not considered to be foreign.
2 – Protection of civilians by all legitimate means in the context of international human rights Law.
3 – Preservation and promotion of national unity of the Syrian people, and the refusal and condemnation of sectarianism, its mobilization, and all that leads to it.
4 – We are proud of the officers and Syrian soldiers who refused to obey the orders to kill civilians and peaceful demonstrators demanding freedom, and we understand the humanitarian and patriotic crisis of conscience which the regime has forced on them. We hold the regime fully responsible for this…

Following the announcement on Dec 31, there was a major movement to unseat Burhan within the SNC. Even some of his closest allies joined in the criticism.  Members of the Muslim Brotherhood attacked him for being a “dictator” because he didn’t send the agreement to the appropriate SNC committees before announcing it. Ghalioun quickly began to back away from the agreement, calling it a draft. Haytham Manaa is being badly criticized by SNC members for being willing to talk to the regime.

Much of the criticism came from opposition members who reject that declarations renunciation of foreign intervention. Both Manaa and Ghalioun have been outspoken opponents of outright foreign intervention, but increasingly the Muslim Brothers and others within the SNC and local coordinating committees want foreign powers to bring down the Asad regime. They want action and fear the present stalemate will continue for a long time unless foreign governments get involved.

See this criticism on al-Jazeera English by Ashraf al-Muqdad of the Damascus Declaration. He claims most opposition want intervention.

A new SNC website in English. It provides profiles of the members, although there are many misleading names. Many members continue to use false names because they fear reprisals from the regime. Also see this “Report: Who is the Syrian-Kurdish opposition? The development of Kurdish parties, 1956-2011.” I have condensed some of the most important paragraphs below.

NEWS ROUND UP

Washington Times Commentary: Opposition leader: Most Syrians want foreign military action, 2012-01-02
By Ben Birnbaum, The Washington Times

ISTANBUL — A Syrian opposition leader says most of his colleagues now support international military action to oust President Bashar Assad “but they might not be brave enough to express it openly.” Samir Nashar, a member of the Syrian National ….

Divide and Rule in Syria
The schisms of the Syrian opposition
The Majalla: The Leading Arab Magazine, Wednesday, 4 Jan, 2012

The Syrian opposition has so far failed to unite in the face of government violence and repression….

Here The Majalla provides a comprehensive outline of the various political groups and individuals in opposition to the ruling Assad regime.

Forces Competing for the Rule of a New Syria

Ten months after the outset of the Syrian revolution, no political alternative with popular consensus has crystallized. Even the opposition appears at odds, divided into Islamists, liberals and youth leaders belonging to many groups and committees. These groups are leading the protest movement on the ground along with the Free Syrian Army (composed of defected Syrian Army officers).

The problem facing the Syrian opposition forces in a potential transition period is the form of transition itself, and the many perspectives of a post-Assad ruling system. In fact, the situation of the opposition may suggest a competition between forces and figures that have emerged during the revolution, particularly two bodies: The Syrian National Council and the National Coordination Committee.

There are numerous ideological differences among today’s Syrian opposition, in spite of the coalitions forced upon them due to the developments of the Arab Spring and the current necessities of unity.

High-ranking Syrian official announces defection, January 4, 2012, Now Lebanon

Mahmoud Sleiman Hajj Hamad, head inspector at the Syrian Defense Ministry and first inspector at the Monetary Center of the Interior Ministry, told Al-Jazeera television that he split from the regime.

مؤتمر صحفي للمنشق السوري سليمان الترن

A high-ranking Syrian official announced on Wednesday his defection from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Syrian Uprising Raises The Specter Of Sectarian War
NPR – Deb Amos

It’s Time for Turkish Leadership on Syria, December 31, 2011

Sami Moubayed - Observers court controversy in Syria

… What we do know is that certain heavyweights in the Arab League, like Saudi Arabia, are not playing games in the Syrian crisis. What is also apparent is that the world has given Russia a green light to find a solution for Syria, in accordance with the US. This solution — loosely coined “the Russian Initiative” — will try to hammer out a deal for Syria, similar to the Yemeni one. The Syrians will not accept giving the glory of a solution to the Americans, Qataris, or Turks, and that is why this deal will be packaged and marketed as a Russian project, from A to Z. In Yemen, what happened was a win-win situation wherein neither side won or lost completely. The Russians are thinking of a similar outcome for Syria, but that can only see the light of day after the observer mission comes out with a report that perhaps — just perhaps — is satisfying for both the Syrian government, and the Syrian opposition. Only then will the Russians get real room to manoeuvre.

Iran sought to broker Syria deal between Assad, Muslim Brotherhood
By Ben Birnbaum, The Washington Times, January 3, 2012

ISTANBUL — A leader of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood says Iran has sought to coax the Islamist group’s support for President Bashar Assad in exchange for four high-ranking positions in the Syrian government.

Mohammed Farouk Tayfour, the top political leader in Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood, told The Washington Times on Tuesday that Iran’s supreme leader — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — sent three emissaries to Istanbul in late October to try to broker the deal.

“We refused to meet with them,” said Mr. Tayfour, one of nine members of the Syrian National Council’s executive committee, which is leading opposition to the Assad regime. “We told them [through a Turkish mediator] that Iran has been taking sides against the Syrian people…..

Time: Arab League Calls Meeting on Syria Monitors
2012-01-03

Time – (BEIRUT) — The Arab League on Tuesday called for an emergency meeting to discuss whether to withdraw the group’s monitors from Syria, where security forces are still killing protesters despite the observers’ presence, an Arab official said. The …

Syrian opposition groups plan for post-Assad era, December 31, 2011
Now Lebanon

Most Syrians ‘supportive of Assad’ – according to opinion poll of Doha Debates

Although the majority of Arabs believe Syria’s President Basher al-Assad should resign in the wake of the regime’s brutal treatment of protesters, fewer Syrians are supportive of an immediate leadership change.

According to the latest opinion poll commissioned by The Doha Debates, Syrians are more supportive of their president with 55% not wanting him to resign. One of the main reasons given by those wanting the president to stay in power was fear for the future of the country.

That level of support is not mirrored elsewhere in the region with 81% of Arabs wanting President Assad to step down. They believe Syria would be better off if free democratic elections were held under the supervision of a transitional government.

The poll’s finding support the result of November’s Doha Debate in which 91% of the audience called for President Assad to resign. If President Assad resigns, Syria’s relations with Turkey, Lebanon and the United States are expected to improve while relations with Iran and Israel will worsen, according to the opinion poll findings. The poll conducted by YouGov Siraj questioned more than 1,000 people in the Arab world between December 14 and 19.

أبلغت الحكومة السورية مساء اليوم غرف الصناعة في كافة المحافظات السورية، أن الكهرباء ستنقطع يوماً كاملاً في الاسبوع عن جميع المدن والمناطق والتجمعات الصناعية.

As’ad Abou Khalil: The state of Syrian military/intelligence apparatuses: the mafias

I asked an informed Syrians to update me about the status of the Syrian military/intelligence apparatus. He says: The Army is different in its composition from the security apparatuses> The critical security apparatuses are led by `Alawite officers while the army is different in its sectarian composition but suffers from the same problems that afflict the security apparatuses in terms of the loyalty of many of its officers to mafias of corruption. The Syrian Army is certainly not a combat army and has lost much of its preparedness due to the internal Syrian situation especially after the withdrawal from Lebanon. Most officers were transformed into protectors of corruption and partners with it. And there local officers (in various provinces who occupy senior administrative positions) who are business agents for Mr. Rami Makhluf in the various provinces…..

DJ Syria’s Assad Has Only ‘Few Weeks’ Left In Control – Israel
2012-01-02

JERUSALEM (AFP)–The family of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has only “a few weeks” left in control of the strife-torn country, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told laswmakers on Monday. “The Assad family has no more than a few weeks to remain in control in Syria,” Barak told the parliament’s prestigious foreign affairs and defence committee in remarks quoted by the committee spokesman. …

Azmi Bashara on Syria… Always interesting

Time for a Rethink in Syria
By: Ibrahim al-Amin
Thursday, December 22, 2011 , Al-Akhbar

Rather than trying to formulate reasonable demands, or a mechanism for translating the protest movement’s achievements into concrete gains; rather than taking account of sectarian, ethnic, tribal, political, and regional sensitivities, and pursuing dialogue even if accompanied by protests and clashes with the regime; these forces, especially those based offshore, looked for foreign assistance.

They did so with a single-minded fixation on Libya and the foreign intervention that took place there. They have worked tirelessly to mobilize international and regional support for a similar march of folly in Syria. Yet they avoid discussing it directly, and even make a point of denying that it is what they seek.

They know that it is not the option the Syrian people want. To be more precise, there is no consensus in favor of it. But one could confidently assert that the majority of Syrians reject it.

Yet the offshore opposition has tried shamelessly to replicate the Libyan model: The Syrian National Council was named with Libya’s Transitional National Council in mind.

They supported supplying weapons into the countryside on the pretext of protecting civilians, but had the rebels of eastern Libya in mind.

They were quick to call for protected areas, with Benghazi in mind. And they demanded international protection, hoping for another UN mandate for regional and international powers to provide that protection via military intervention.

Inspired by Libya’s revolutionary brigades, they blessed the creation of the Free Syrian Army. And they remain at the service of any foreign army that may be willing to join a war aimed at toppling Bashar Assad’s regime.

With characteristic irresponsibility, they have no qualms about exhorting the Syrian people to engage in a bloody confrontation with the regime. Their leaders can scarcely conceal their delight when announcing the rising numbers of fellow Syrians who have been killed, injured, or arrested.

‘World should bomb Syria’, Ynetnews Special
In first interview with Israeli media, two Syrian exiles urge world to wake up
Orly Azoulay, 12.28.11,

Why are you telling your story to the Israeli media? Do you wish to convey a message to the government in Jerusalem?

“We do it so that you bomb Assad’s palace,” Amar quips. “But seriously now: I’m not a captive of the myth that Jews run the world and America, but Israel does have power and influence. We are engaged in a public relations campaign worldwide to put Bashar Assad on trial for crimes against humanity and for war crimes. If Israel supports the move, it would be greatly helpful.

“The Syrian opposition and Israel share a joint interest. We have no ideological hatred for Israel or for Jews. I know that’s what you think, but it’s not the case. It’s true that for years they taught us to hate Israel and fight is, but many Syrians already realized that they are being taught to hate Israel to divert attention away from the oppression in the country. We realized that Assad senior and junior educated people to hate Israel in order to stay in power; to blind us with hate for Israel so that we don’t channel our energies to the fact that we live with no freedom or future.

“This is over. People got it. Assad still has his supporters, the Alawites who depend on him, because if he falls they will fall too. Yet among other groups, and there are very diverse ethnic groups in Syria, he lost support. In the army too there are thousands of defectors by now, and they left with their weapons. They are hiding away, getting organized, and at the right moment they will act.”

‘Most Syrians despise Iran’

We head to the computer. Amar opens his encrypted files, which contain photographs and videos smuggled by the rebels. On the screen we see protestors in the city of Homs burning Hezbollah flags with fury and also burning Hassan Nasrallah’s photos. This is a new phenomenon in Syria, which for years allowed the group to arm itself.

“In all protests thus far, an Israeli flag wasn’t burned even once,” Amar says. “This uprising demonstrates that the Syrian people’s hatred is reserved for Assad’s tyrannical regime and for those who support it and safeguard it. They realize that Hezbollah caused Syria grave damage.”

“They also burned Iranian flags in the protests. I can promise you that the alliance between Syria and Iran that threatens the Middle East will come to an end after Assad is gone. Most Syrians despise Iran, because it dragged Syria into becoming an ostracized state. The protestors are also burning Russian flags, because Russia supports Assad in the United Nations,” he says. “It’s not as though there are no disagreements with Israel. There are. A dispute over borders. The Golan is ours and we shall demand it back under any regime. Yet there is no hatred for Israel and for the Jews. We, the young people’ proved it.”

Iran has played a key role in assisting Assad. Both Rahim and Amar tell of Iranian-speaking snipers who do not speak Arabic being deployed across Damascus and helping in repressing the protests. Rahim adds that other Arab world protests, in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Libya inspired Syrian’s citizens…..

Israeli opportunity

A few weeks ago, Amar met with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He presented to her, among other things, information about soldiers who defected and plan to launch a guerilla fight against the army. “To my surprise, she asked that the defectors lay down their arms,” he says. “That’s an odd request. Why didn’t they ask the rebels in Libya to lay down their arms? How can they do it if at any moment they can be fired at and murdered? It’s impractical.”

“I can’t understand why the Americans are silent,” Amar says. “We expected them to intervene. Militarily. To bomb the Syrian army from the air. They intervened in Libya and managed to prompt Gaddafi’s removal, and that is what we expect them to do to Assad now. Thus far, more people were killed in Syria than in Libya at the point where Obama decided to launch a military offensive in order to avert a greater massacre. NATO also bombed in Kosovo when it was necessary. Why this hypocrisy?”

“Obama urged Assad to leave, but he won’t leave out of his own accord. He’s a coward, he’s naïve, and he is convinced that he has support. He boasts that his children support him. His wife benefited him greatly over the years by providing, with her very presence, a moderate image in the eyes of the world, yet people who met her said she is very shallow and we don’t count on her to influence him to leave.”

Meanwhile, Rahim stresses that Syria is a secular state and that the West should not fear a radical Islamic takeover. “We have many groups, but we live with respect for each other. What’s clear is that the oppressive regime must pass from this world. Our slogan is freedom and dignity. This is what Syria deserves, and we hope that the world will help us, including Israel.”

These voices reached Israel too. Knesset Member Isaac Herzog, who is a member of the Knesset’s Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee, met with Syrian exiles in Washington in recent weeks and he suggests that we listen to them.

“We in Israel often complain that they don’t know us and don’t understand us. We should know that we too do not possess sufficient understanding of our neighbors, and when it comes to Syria we see total ignorance. Following these and other meetings, I can say that what’s happening there does not resemble any other change taking place in our region. The Syrians are a secular nation comprising a fascinating coalition of ethnicities.”

“In my view, following the Assad era there is a chance for positive processes vis-à-vis Israel as well, and they will require us to meet the challenge,” Herzog says. “The US and its partners, along with human rights groups, must grant the protestors more massive support, so that these processes mature as quickly as possible. Otherwise Syria will be plunged into chaos.”….

Report: Who is the Syrian-Kurdish opposition? The development of Kurdish parties, 1956-2011

KURDWATCH, December 31, 2011—The purpose of this essay is to analyze the current landscape of Kurdish political parties in Syria, including their protagonists, their political goals, their concrete political actions, and their significance for society. Given the current situation, a political analysis of the Kurdish parties, which form a significant part of the Syrian opposition, is of considerable importance. …

If President Bashar al‑Assad and the Baʿth regime fall, the Kurdish parties will try to implement their political visions of a »new Syria.« What do these visions actually look like? Do they extend beyond Kurd-specific demands? Who is leading the Kurdish parties, and which supporters do they have at their disposal? What roll have the Kurdish parties thus far played in the revolution and within the Syrian opposition as a whole? ….

Lack of Democracy

The inner organizational structure of the Syrian-Kurdish parties blatantly contradicts the commitment to democracy. The numerous splits — mostly personal, in a few cases motivated by the program — make it clear that the various parties still have not managed to establish a structure in which it is possible to resolve conflict through discussion or, in case of doubt, through a majority decision within the party. Some party leaders have held this office since the formation of the party, in other cases, a successor was only elected or appointed because his predecessor died.49 Party mergers or splits offer yet another way to become head of a party. Furthermore in the Middle East, there is the classic example of the son taking over the office of his father — as, for example, Jamal Muhammad Baqi….

The Yekîtî represent an exception insofar as the chairmanship rotates every three years. The PYD elects a new chairman every four years. The ways in which party leaders are chosen reflects the tradition of the »original KDPS« — which was characterized by a lack of democratic structures.

The influence of Syrian politics since independence is also visible: Until 1970, regime change largely took place through coups, followed by the de facto one-party rule of the Assads.

While the lack of democratic legitimacy does not seem to be an issue within the parties, policymakers are well aware that the extreme fragmentation of political parties weakens their importance and serves to make them susceptible to the Syrian regime’s divide-and-rule politics. This background helps explain a phenomenon, observable since the 1990s, that is quasi diametrically opposed to the various factions of the KDPS: the formation of party alliances that make joint declarations or organize single activities……

many Syrian Kurds, both those in exile and those in Syria, complain about the fragmentation of the Syrian-Kurdish movement and are of the opinion that the parties have achieved nothing for the Kurds….

It is striking, however, that none of the Kurdish parties implement social projects, for example, education projects for women and youth, aid projects for the poor, environmental projects, etc….

large portions of the Kurdish population explicitly consider themselves Kurds or part of the Kurdish nation. In this respect, the parties have successfully practiced »identity politics.«….

With the exception of the PYD, it is generally true that all parties are very active in the Jazirah, in other words in al‑Hasakah province, and are less active in ʿAfrin. The largest portion of the Kurdish population lives in the Jazirah; moreover, the center of the Kurdish movement was located there as early as the time of
the mandate. This in turn is connected to the fact that a large number of the Kurds who became politicized in Turkey settled in this region starting in the  1920s…..

There are no reliable figures on the number of supporters of the individual parties. We only have self-reported numbers from several parties from the year 2009….

Programmatic Orientation

To begin with, the goals of the Syrian-Kurdish parties are noteworthy for the demands they do not make: None of the parties demand an independent Syrian-    Kurdish state or the inclusion of the Syrian-Kurdish regions in a united Kurdistan. None of the parties — and here the Kurdish movement in Syria differs from the  Kurdish parties in Iraq and Turkey — wants to claim the rights of the Kurdish population by force of arms nor have they ever propagated this.

There are  multiple reasons for this. First of all, the geographic and demographic conditions in Syria are poorly suited to supporting armed conflict or the demand for an independent state. With a share of approximately two41 out of twenty million, the Kurdish population is proportionately smaller than in Iraq and especially in  Turkey. Moreover, the three main Kurdish settlement areas — the Jazirah, the Kurd Dagh (Çiyayê Kurmênc), and ʿAyn al‑ʿArab (Kobanî) — are geographically separate, which runs contrary to at least the classical concepts of statehood. In addition, at least in the most populous Kurdish settlement region, the Jazirah, there are no mountainous regions that would be suitable as areas of retreat for armed fighters. Though it would be possible in principle to organize as »urban guerrillas«, there are hardly any models for this in the Kurdish context.

At the same time, Syrian Kurds have been taking part in the armed conflict for the liberation of the Kurds in Turkey and Iraq for decades. Already at the time of the French mandate, Khoybun supported the battle on Ararat both militarily and with propaganda. Later, Syrian Kurds fought for KDP and PUK in the Iraqi- Kurdish liberation movement, as well as in the PKK. President Hafiz al‑Assad allowed the Kurdish parties from neighboring Iraq and Turkey to operate with  relative freedom in Syria. Until Öcalan’s arrest in 1998, the PKK held training camps for its guerrilla troops in what, at the time, was still Syrian-controlled  Lebanon. To date, the KDP and PUK still have party offices in Damascus. In this way, Assad not only assured himself a means to apply pressure in negotiations  with neighboring states, he also succeeded in channeling the engagement of Syrian Kurds towards Iraq and Turkey and away from the Syrian-Kurdish question.

This strategy was also successful because despite countless defeats, the KDP, PUK, and PKK were consistently able to score victories against their respective  governments. When Öcalan joined the position of the Syrian government and declared that there was no Kurdish question in Syria, but rather that the Kurds in  Syria were actually refugees from Turkey, his position contributed to minimizing the followers of the Syrian-Kurdish parties and integrating the more radical  protagonists into his own armed movement.42 This weakened the Kurdish movement in Syria and helped prevent the development of an effective opposition —  including one that moved beyond an armed conflict.

The Syrian-Kurdish parties seek a solution to the Kurdish question by democratic means, respecting Syria’s territorial integrity.43 The main demands are the constitutional recognition of the Kurdish people as a second nation within Syria, as well as the  recognition that the Kurdish people in Syria are living on their historical territory.

The concrete rights that derive from this are not defined. Only the Progressive Party has a more careful formulation, describing the Kurds as a »part of the national Syrian structure.« In contrast, the Future Movement is the only party that explicitly points to the fact that Syria’s Kurds are “a part of the Kurdish people and their territory is a part of Kurdistan.” Furthermore almost all parties mention “self-administration” of the Kurdish regions as a goal, however, it is never explained what this self-administration actually entails. Only the Yekîtî demand “self-government”44 and explain that they are seeking an administrative unity of all Kurdish regions….

Although all of the parties claim to also have female members, politics in the Syrian-Kurdish parties remains a male domain…..

Until recently, the Syrian government has not accepted the Kurdish parties as negotiating partners. Talks have repeatedly took place between Kurdish figures, including party representatives, and Bashar al‑Assad.64 From the perspective of the government, these talks served first and foremost to control the Kurdish parties, and thus also the Kurdish population. In the context of the events in al‑Qamishli in March 2004, it becomes especially clear how the government tried to calm the »street« with the help of the Kurdish parties.65 Party leaders, however, were not invited to such talks as representatives of their parties. An invitation to appear as party representatives occurred for the first time in June 2011, after the continuing demonstrations had already put significant pressure on the government.66….

The fact that to date there have been almost no dissident demonstrations in ʿAfrin, the bastion of the PYD, can primarily be attributed to the influence of the PYD, and therefore also to the influence of the PKK. The PYD does not appear to want to spoil its relationship with the government; if the regime should survive, the party could point to its loyalty and possibly improve its position in Syria.77 At the same time there are hints that the PYD is preparing itself to fill a possible power vacuum in the Jazirah that could arise after the fall of the government. In several cases, activists critical of the PYD have been kidnapped and tortured; members of other parties have been threatened.78 Even though publicly the Syrian regime is held responsible for the assassination of Mishʿal at‑Tammu, there are indications that the PYD was not only responsible for the first, failed attempt against his life — as he himself suspected — but also for his assassination.79…

As far as contacts between the Arab and Kurdish opposition are concerned, these have been formalized in several oppositional coalitions. The oldest of these is the Damascus Declaration, which was formed in 2005. On the Kurdish side, the Democratic Yekîtî, the Patriotic Party, the Equality Party, the Progressive Party, ʿAbdulhakim Bashar’s el‑Partî, Nasruddin Ibrahim’s el‑Partî, the Left Party, and the Rêkeftin are represented. The Yekîtî, the Azadî, the Future Movement, and the PYD have stayed away from the Damascus Declaration because they do not believe its position on the Kurds goes far enough. The reservations rest primarily on the fact that the document does not contain a passage in which the Kurds are explicitly recognized as an independent nation along with the Arabs in Syria.80….

…the Future Movement, with its previous speaker Mishʿal at‑Tammu, was significantly involved in preparations for the National Rescue Conference. After the conference was held in Istanbul, however, at‑Tammu too announced his party’s withdrawal. In a statement, he criticized, among other things, the fact that the participants did not keep toprearranged agreements and that in the closing statement in Istanbul the existence and the rights of the Kurds in that »part of  Kurdistan that was annexed to Syria« were not mentioned….

This vagueness reflects not only the Arab opposition’s fear of making overly broad concessions to Kurdish nationalism, but also and above all the vagueness of the Kurdish positions themselves. This vagueness — especially with regard to an overthrow of the regime — is also responsible for the fact that even though Kurdish party representatives are members of the Syrian National Council, an oppositional coalition formed in October 2011 in Istanbul, their political action is not yet publicly visible….

As opinions and sentiments within the Kurdish parties lean more and more towards the endorsement of a regime change, Darwish apparently continues to play a leading role, even though his party previously advocated for a moderate policy towards the regime. Parallel to this development, the Syrian National Council presented a draft of a political program on November 20, 2011 in which it pledges, among other things, that the constitution of the »new Syria« will guarantee the Kurds their »national rights,« as well as a just solution to the Kurdish question within the framework of the unity of the Syrian state.90 On the Kurdish side, criticism immediately came, first and foremost, from the PYD,91 which accuses the National Council of pursuing policies towards the Kurds that are no different than those of the current Syrian regime.92 At the moment, it remains to be seen which concrete political rights the Kurds will be able to negotiate in the »new
Syria« as a result of this pledge.  [Read the report]

Kurds: Interview with Leader of PKK military wing – مراد قرايلان  Murad Qraylan

Qraylan of the Kurdish Communist Party states that the PKK stands with the Syrian people for democracy against the Assad regime. He denies that the PKK is allied with Assad against Turkey. But he also states that the PKK stands against foreign intervention in Syria. He asks the Syrian opposition to unify its ranks and to continue peaceful opposition. He argues that armed opposition will complicate maters….

BY Abdullah ALghadawi,  محرر الشؤون السياسية – صحيفة عكاظ, جدة – الممــــلكة العــربــيـــة الســعوديـــة

قائد الجناح العسكري في حزب العمال الكردستاني لـ «عكاظ» :

التحالف مع الأسد كذبة وجاهزون لحماية الأكراد

عبد الله الغضوي ـ جبال قنديل التركية ( هاتفيا)

[طباعة] [ اكتب رأيك] [اخبر صديقك] [أرسل ملاحظاتك]

أكد قائد الجناح العسكري في حزب العمال الكردستاني مراد قرايلان أن تركيا تروج عبر وسائل الإعلام أن ثمة تحالفا بين النظام السوري وحزب العمال الكردستاني، معتبرا هذا الترويج كذبة اخترقت وسائل الإعلام العربية.

وقال في أول حوار له مع صحيفة سعودية لـ «عكاظ» أن الحزب الكردستاني (PKK) جاهز لحماية الشعب الكردي في سورية، إذا تعرض للخطر، نافيا وجود عناصر من الحزب على الأراضي السورية.

ودعا قرايلان أكراد سورية إلى مساندة الثورة من أجل دولة ديمقراطية جديدة.. وإلى نص الحديث:

• هناك أوساط تركية وكردية تعتبر سورية ساحة صراع بين حزب العمال الكردستاني وتركيا، ماذا تقول؟

ــ سورية ليست ساحة صراع ومواجهة بيننا وبين تركيا، وقبل كل شيء لا توجد لنا قوات في سورية.

الدولة التركية تروج لهذه الأكاذيب، فهي تقول بأن سورية وإيران ليستا ديمقراطيتين وحزب العمال الكردستاني تحالف معهم أيضاً. وفي العام 2003 عقد اتفاق بين تركيا، إيران وسورية ضد حزبنا.

• إذا من أي زاوية تبنون موقفكم مما يجري في سورية؟

ـــــ نقف إلى جانب الشعب السوري في مطالبه الديمقراطية، لكننا لا نقبل التدخل العسكري الأوروبي في هذا البلد، وعلى هذه الثورة أن تلتزم الخيار السلمي ولا تستخدم السلاح بأية طريقة، لأن العنف سيزيد الأمور تعقيداً وانسداداً لأفاق الحل. فالكرد جزء من المعارضة وعليهم توحيد صفوفهم، فهم منقسمون بين المجلس الوطني وهيئة التنسيق، ونعتقد بأن توحيد صفوفهم شيء مهم للنضال من أجل سورية ديمقراطية وليس من أجل السلطة….

The west has a duty to intervene in Syria
Those who continue to appease President Bashar al-Assad also have blood on their hands
by Nick Cohen

…The reason why is best explained by Michael Weiss, a …combative and unstoppably talkative New York intellectual with a loathing for totalitarians and their apologists in whatever form they come. Somehow, he ended up in the London offices of the Henry Jackson Society. The pro-democracy thinktank does much serious work but even its best friends would say that it is not always at the forefront of global political debate.

From this backwater, Weiss compiled a report (http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/content.asp?pageid=35) on how American, British and French air power might combine with Turkish ground forces to create a safe haven in northern Syria, where mutinous troops from the Syrian army could build a fighting force. Nato officials have studied it, while Burhan Ghalioun, chairman of the Syrian National Council, described the report as a “crucial resource for understanding how a humanitarian intervention in Syria can still be carried out responsibly”….

The lazy talk about the Middle East being a unified “Arab world” or a part of a unified “Muslim world” ignores the real divisions. The region is a mess of competing sectarian and ethnic interests. In Syria, they have combined to produce an apartheid state, in which Assad’s Alawite Shia minority controls the police, army and intelligence agencies. The first weeks of the revolution were joyously anti-sectarian as the Syrian National Council refused to become a weapon for the avenging Sunni majority.

To beat the opposition and survive, Assad has to play his equivalent of the race card. He has to rally the support of his tribe by telling the Allawite and Christian minorities that they must unite behind him or face extermination. To make certain his prediction comes true he burns down the house just to make sure. He is organising the sectarian cleansing of Sunni neighbourhoods and trying to turn his desperate bid to hold on to power into a Sunni-Shia civil war……

A response to Cohen by Syria News Wire, “Beating the drums of war”

Baath Party to have meeting in order to “change its leadership,” get ride of “opportunists,” and develop a new position about “new developments” in Syria…. spirit of renewal… The Baath is a strong party; one cannot generalize based on particular problems that arise here and there…”

من المستحسن تغيير كامل أعضاء القيادة
مصدر حزبي مسؤول : المؤتمر سيحدد موقف البعث من المشهد الجديد في سورية
03/01/2012

Justin Raimondo writes:

“As the intensity of the anti-Syrian propaganda war picks up in the ‘mainstream’ media – which focuses on alleged atrocities committed by government forces while maintaining a soft focus on the violence of armed rebel groups…”

City Room: Little Syria (Now Tiny Syria) Finds New Advocates, 2012-01-02
By DAVID W. DUNLAP

Jan. 1 (New York Times) — In 1891, Yusuf Sadallah arrived in Lower Manhattan from the town of Baskinta, in the part of the Ottoman Empire that is now Lebanon. Going by the name of Joseph Sadallah, he set up a trading shop on Washington Street, where other immigrants from the Levant – Syrians, Lebanese and Palestinians – had created a vibrant Arab quarter known as Little…

John Kiriakou was a CIA officer from 1990 until 2004, and senior investigator on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2009 until 2011.
Syria….

Haytham Maleh speaks about torture in the Syrian prisons to “al-Hiwar” TV program. Talks about Muhammad Nasif, Muslim Brotherhood, life in various prisons of the 15 security branches, especially Kafrsouse, rape, humanity.

Robert Fisk

What drove the Arabs in their tens of thousands and then their millions on to the streets of Middle East capitals was a demand for dignity and a refusal to accept that the local family-ruled dictators actually owned their countries. The Mubaraks and the Ben Alis and the Gaddafis and the kings and emirs of the Gulf (and Jordan) and the Assads all believed that they had property rights to their entire nations. Egypt belonged to Mubarak Inc, Tunisia to Ben Ali Inc (and the Traboulsi family), Libya to Gaddafi Inc. And so on. The Arab martyrs against dictatorship died to prove that their countries belonged to their own people.

Though Syria has made some concessions to the monitors since they began work Tuesday, government forces have at the same time been pressing ahead with attempts to put down peaceful protests in Hama, Homs and other parts of the country. Activists said at least 39 people have been killed by security forces in the two days since the observers arrived.

The government released 755 prisoners following a report by Human Rights Watch accusing authorities of hiding hundreds of detainees from the observers. It was the second concession in two days to the Arab League.

On Monday, the army pulled some of its troops back from the city of Homs after bombarding it for days and killing scores of people. It allowed the monitors to visit and as they came, tens of thousands of protesters poured into the streets, chanting calls for the execution of President Bashar Assad.

The crisis in Syria was officially internationalized when members of the Arab League’s observer force arrived in Syria last Thursday. The following day, two car bombs exploded in front of state security offices in Kfar Sousa, Damascus, killing 44 and injuring another 100. The issue of who was responsible for the attack remains in dispute. Three days later, a second group of Arab League monitors arrived in Syria as violence in the central city of Homs intensified. Charged with monitoring the Syrian government’s implementation of the Arab League’s peace plan, the monitors have thus far been met with mixed emotions and varying levels of violence and disorder.

20% Deficit next year? Economy – EHSANI writes:

I think this Syria Steps article is extremely important coming from an economics expert at Damascus University. Usually, a budget deficit of nearing 10% of GDP starts to become a problem. This note claims the following:

1- Tax revenues next year will be less than half of what they were (50% drop).

2- Income from oil sale and the public sector will also drop.

3- The budget deficit as a result will be syp 529 billion out of a total budget of syp 1326 billion. In other words, 40% of expenditures will be unpaid for by revenue.

4- The resulting deficit of syp 529 billion is nearly $9 billion or 18% of GDP and this is assuming a GDP of $50 billion. The actual deficit/gdp ratio could top 20%.

5- The government has no access to credit markets. It never developed a local bond market and it can never access the international credit markets.

6- And here is the shocking solution: Force powerful companies, banks and even large car dealers to lend to the government especially that many made “enormous profits during the economic reform and liberalization process”. The way to do this would be through “tashreei” or passing laws that specifies the amounts, rates and tenor of these loans per company and even “individual”.

7- let me summarize it in simple terms: The state is only able to collect 60% of every syp it spends. It cannot borrow to bridge the gap. The only way to bridge the gap is to go to those companies, banks , car dealers, etc. that are thought to have benefited in the past and force them to lend to the state at rates and amounts that the government itself specifies.

The value of the Syrian Pound to the US Dollar has stabilized in the last few days on the back of the decision of the Central Bank to bring the national currency’s official rate closer to its black market value. The US Dollar now trades at around 59 Pounds per US Dollar from above 60 Pounds at the end of last week. (From Syria Report)

Government to Cut Overhead Expenses by 25 Percent – by Jihad Yaziji at Syria Report, 26-12-2011

The Syrian Prime Minister has issued instructions to all State administrations requiring them to reduce all their overhead expenses by 25 percent, excluding salaries.

The letter, which was issued by Adel Safar on December 18, says that the cuts must be made in various accounts including transport, stationery, office equipment, subscription to publications, staff bonuses, advertising, public relations and maintenance of equipment.

Both investment and current expenses are targeted by the measure.

The 2011 budget approved at the end of last year projected a budget deficit of 5.8 percent of GDP. However, a range of expenditure measures has been approved since last March by the Government in a bid to appease the protesters that have been taking to the streets across the country, leading to a significant hike in expenses. There is no estimate on how much these measures are going to increase the fiscal deficit.

The Syrian President also enacted last week the 2012 budget that forecasts a 58 percent increase in expenses to SYP 1,326 billion. This large increase is mainly due to the fact that expenses previously not accounted for in the state’s budget, namely energy subsidies, are now taken into account. The actual year-on-year difference in expenses with this year is ‘only’ 15 percent, according to the Minister of Finance.

The deficit should rise to SYP 335 billion in 2012. On the basis of this year’s Gross Domestic Product, the deficit would represent some 12 percent of GDP. It is not clear whether the 25 percent reduction in expenses required by the Government enters into account in this budget.

Current expenses are inceasing to SYP 951 billion and investment allocations standing at SYP 375 billion.

Many analysts had predicted the Syrian economy would collapse on the back of the political unrest, the economic downturn and the significant hikes in Government expenses. However, to this date the Syrian authorities have managed to keep a lid on inflation and to limit the decline of the Syrian Pound

Because of the absence of any data and the overall lack of transparency it is difficult to explain the performance of the Government. The decline in investment and spending has reduced imports and therefore reduced pressure on the national currency, while the good raining season has led to good crops, which in turn helped limit price increases.

Other analysts argue that the Government has been receiving outside help in the form of capital transfers from Iran or Iraq but there is no tangible evidence to confirm these assertions.

However, the closing weeks of 2011 have been difficult with the first large scale shortages of heating oil and domestic gas affecting Damascus. The Syrian capital is also facing daily power cuts of up to 3 hours, while until mid-November it was still largely void of any cut.

The last few weeks of the year have also seen increasing calls for strikes and boycotts. While the impact of these calls are discounted by Damascus-based analysts, in the countryside and many other cities they are relatively well enforced contributing to the general decline in business activity and government revenues.

Military repression in Homs is changing. Video of two T72s shelling Bab Amro sent by Thomas Pierret

This seems to be the first recording of tank fire or shelling of a Syrian city by a tank or heavy artillery. Earlier claims of tanks shelling Hama or ships shelling Latakia cannot be verified.

U.S. quietly preparing to support Syria opposition: report, December 29, 2011, The Daily Star

BEIRUT: White House officials are quietly preparing options to aid the Syrian opposition, Foreign Policy magazine reported.

In a blog posted Wednesday, the current affairs publication quoted two administration officials as saying the National Security Council (SNC), a body that aids the U.S. president in weighing national security policies, has commenced an informal, quiet interagency process of discussing options to assist the Syrian opposition.

Only a few select officials from the departments of State, Defense, Treasury and other agencies are engaged in the discussions headed by NSC Senior Director Steve Simon, the magazine reported.

The two officials, who were not taking part in the NSC meetings but familiar with the proceedings, said options being considered include setting up a humanitarian corridor or safe zone for civilians in Syria along the Turkish border, providing humanitarian assistance to the Syrian rebels, offering medical aid to Syrian clinics and engaging more with the external and internal opposition.

The interagency is now looking at options for Syria, but it’s still at the preliminary stage,” Foreign Policy quoted one official as saying. “There are many people in the administration that realize the status quo is unsustainable and there is an internal recognition that existing financial sanctions are not going to bring down the Syrian regime in the near future” the official said…..

Antiwar.com: Obama Secretly Preparing for Syria Intervention, 2011-12-29

Members of the Obama Administration are confirming tonight that the National Security Council has been instructed to begin seeking options for US intervention in Syria, including what they call the “unlikely” option of setting up a no-fly zone. …

SNC president Dr. Burhan Ghalioun addresses the nation on Christmas and New Year -”The regime must be stopped by any means possible…”

U.S. arms sale to Iraq will proceed: Despite the recent political turmoil in Baghdad, the United States will sell nearly $11 billion worth of equipment and training to its military.

Syria’s Torture Machine – BBC 4

An investigation into the detention and torture of Syrian civilians, featuring shocking video evidence of men, women and children being subjected to beatings, whippings and more elaborate…

Des Libyens épaulent les insurgés syriens Figaro – Libyans have gone to Syria to fight.

Syria’s deep divide A group of Syrians gather in The Cafe to debate their country’s future. al-Jazeera

Max Weiss brings us Tha’ir Deeb interview on Jadaliyya

MA: What do the Syrian people have to do, in terms of escalation, in order to put an end to this regime, the most tyrannical in the Arab world? Put differently, when might this regime surrender?

TD: What the Syrian people need to do is continue the revolution, without violence, sectarianism, and asking for international intervention. This path, which seems long and heavy with casualties, is in fact the shortest and has the least casualties. What the Syrian opposition needs to do is to stop wasting time and jumping around from one place to another. It has to dare and put forward visions and practices right here and now in order to help dismantle the stumbling blocks of the Syrian people’s intifada. One stumbling block, for example, is the notion that the intifada is a “rural” one, meaning that it is “regional” and limited to certain classes and segments of society, that it needs to become more urban and adequately patriotic, with an acceptable platform and a clear program. The opposition also needs to stop imitating other experiences in spite of the importance of benefitting from them. A lot of people thought our trajectory was going to be similar to that of Egypt and Tunisia. However, with the exacerbation of this barbaric repression, they proceeded to pander to the Libyan model instead of standing first and foremost with the Syrian model—which has no equal…..

The Syrian Model

MA: You mentioned distinguishing the Syrian revolutionary model and how it differs from the Tunisian, Egyptian, and Libyan models. Can you elaborate on this?…..

Syrian unrest forces Hamas to plan for uprooting leadership across Mideast,  Associated Press, December 28

RAMALLAH, West Bank — Alarmed by bloody unrest in Syria, the Hamas militant group has pulled out many of its lower-level cadres from its Damascus headquarters and made contingency plans to move its leadership to locations across the Middle East, senior Hamas members have told The Associated Press.

NCB Announcement

The National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria [NCB] reports that a meeting was held in Cairo in the past two days between delegates of the NCB and the Syrian National Council [SNC], to continue the work of unifying the Syrian opposition. The atmosphere between the delegates was positive and co-operative during two sessions, and as a consequence they established a basic understanding about the tasks and rules for the expected transitional phase regarding multiple political and procedural aspects.

The most important agreement under discussion between the two delegations was to establish a Syrian General Congress under the auspices of the Arab League, to bring together representatives of the opposition of both of the blocks outside and inside Syria, public figures and independents, as one opposition group so that a Committee would emerge with a unified voice to officially represent the opposition in all forums…

The NCB Delegation in Cairo

27 December 2011

Two suicide bombs outside of government security locations in Damascus killed 40 civilians and soldiers and wounded 100 according to Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad — as reported by the government’s Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).

The attacks have come after one of the most violent weeks since the beginning of the Syrian regime’s crackdown on uprisings nearly ten months ago, and was the first such assault seen in the capital of Damascus.

Iraqi political leaders canceled crisis talks scheduled for today and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki threatened to end power sharing in the government after Baghdad saw a series of violent blasts.

Al Jazeera’s Rula Amin reported that: “The capital has been relatively quiet. If the government is trying to say this is the work of protesters or even al Qaeda sympathizers, the attack is in the heart of the capital and that makes the government look very vulnerable.”

Meanwhile, the British-based advocacy group, Avaaz, reported it has evidence that the death toll since the beginning of the government crackdown has reached 6,237civilians and soldiers, which includes 917 government forces, 400 children, and617 people whose deaths were a result of torture.

Opposition activists claim the government staged the attacks as part of a scheme to convince the Arab League delegation that arrived in Damascus on Thursday that there is no government crackdown, but that violence in the country has been the work of “armed terrorist gangs.”

I was asked by journalists today what I thought about the notion that the Syrian government planned the car bombs to provide a pretext for their increasingly violent crackdown on the opposition. It reminds me of the notion that Washington was behind the World Trade Center bombing to provide a pretext for invading Iraq. I don’t give either much credibility. Both fit a rather perverse “qui bono,” or “who benefits” text, but I shouldn’t think that either are likely. I am only surprised that we haven’t seen the use of suicide bombing sooner.

The context of the bombings are the growing frustration of the opposition. The Assad regime remains strong compared to opposition forces. The external opposition leaders – the NSC – do not have a strategy for bringing down the regime that is realistic. Following this week’s Tunis meeting, the SNC demanded immediate foreign intervention to protect the Syrian people and stop the regime. At the same time it demanded that opposition groups within the country forgo militarization. The SNC snubbed the Free Syrian Army which has been trying to put together a military option.  There is no likelihood that Western powers will intervene in Syria anytime soon. As the death-rate rises, opposition frustrations are also rising, increasing the probability that radical groups will begin to carry out suicide operations in an attempt to break the stalemate.

Law and order are also breaking down in Syria, which means that we should expect the spread of radical groups. The Syrian state, being one of the most intrusive and repressive in the Middle East, was able to thwart radical groups. As its capabilities decline, so will its ability to keep such groups from penetrating Syrian society. But the real reason for such bombings is the desperate political situation.  Until Syria produces an ability to resolve its conflicts by political means, the chances are that the daily diet of suicide bombings that have become a part of political life in Iraq, will also become common in Syria.

Benzene prices were raised in Syria from syp 44 to 50 (13.6 percent). This is further sign of the breakdown of the government’s ability to provide for the people as it used to. Sanctions are working.

Wash Post

…. Tabler added that the increasing militarization of the revolt and the exiled opposition’s growing support for armed action creates a policy dilemma for the United States. “We don’t have a policy for dealing with the fact that many people are taking up arms,” he said.

IRAN EMBASSY IN DAMASCUS CONFIRMS KIDNAPPING OF FIVE IRANIAN TECHNICIANS IN SYRIA – MEHR NEWS AGENCY REUTERS

The Syrian authorities detained the prominent figure Abdul Azeez Al-Khair for a day while he was leaving the country at Damascus airport to travel to Cairo. He was going to participate in discussion with the Arab League as a member of the delegation from the National Coordination Body – NCB, that includes Haytham Manna, Saleh Mohammed and Rajaa Al-Naser. Although released, he has had his passport taken from him to keep him from joining opposition members abroad.

Jerusalem Post: 50 US experts implore Obama to press Syria harder, 2011-12-21

Around 50 US-based experts on Middle East policy and strategy signed an open letter to President Barack Obama this week imploring him to demonstrate greater leadership on the Syria crisis. Their petition calls for tougher sanctions, greater contact …  Tony Badran issued the letter….

Seth Cropsey, a fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former US national security official, said he personally supports the deployment of special forces to the country. “Military intervention could be useful in the form of special operations forces that would help organize, train and equip groups that oppose Assad,” he told the Post. “I support the use of such forces, as well as intelligence assets” to help unseat the Syrian president,” said Cropsey, who also signed the petition….

Aljazeera doesn’t Broadcast SNC: After Syria signed the Doha agreement allowing the Arab League observers into Syria, Aljazeera didn’t broadcast the SNC conference form Tunis. The Aljazeera adviser on Syria who is close to the SNC is now also showing on Alarabiya.

Thomas Pierret writes “Un nouveau billet sur son blog: Islam et politique en Syrie: Les mystérieuses Qoubeysiyyat divisées face à la révolution

Syria Steps -corruption and import tariffs. الشهابي: مشكلتنا في الفساد الجمركي..وقدمنا رؤية واضحة لتطوير الصناعة

Corruption at Commercial Bank: See this article by Sham Times

A friend writes: “4 years ago, I met the general manager of one of the new private banks in Aleppo. We talked about staffing. He said his problem was recruiting senior people from the commercial bank of Syria. Why I asked. He said that their salaries are around syp 20,000 a year. He would entice them by paying them between syp 75,000 and 100,000 a month. None would come because they make multiples of that at the commercial bank of Syria outside their salaries. Every loan they make, they get paid a chunk personally.”

الحرب تُعلن رسمياً على مدير التجاري السوري War between Mayale and Dergham people at the Commercial Bank واقتراح بمناظرة تلفزيونية تجمع درغام وميالة وجليلاتي…كي نفهم…!؟

Azmi Bishara shreds the SNC to pieces (without mentioning it) for how it begs for Arab and international intervention and how it uses tashbee7 against other opposition.

Assessing Assad – Foreign Affairs
The Syrian leader isn’t crazy. He’s just doing whatever it takes to survive.
BY BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA, ALASTAIR SMITH | DECEMBER 20, 2011

….Following the logic we set out in The Dictator’s Handbook, we believe Assad has been misunderstood and maybe, just maybe, even misjudged. In the book, we argue that no leader — not even a Louis XIV, an Adolf Hitler, or a Joseph Stalin — can rule alone. Each must rely on a coalition of essential supporters without whom power will be lost. That coalition, in turn, counts on a mutually beneficial relationship with the leader. They keep the ruler in office, and the ruler keeps them in the money. If either fails to deliver what the other wants, the government falls.

Assad is no exception. Just as he said, it is not his government. He cannot do whatever he wants. He might even be a true reformer, as many in the Western media believed prior to the Arab Spring, or he may be the brute he now appears to be. The truth is, he is doing what he must to maintain the loyalty of those who keep him in power. …

The Alawites make up 70 percent of Syria’s career military, 80 percent of the officers, and nearly 100 percent of the elite Republican Guard and the 4th Armored Division, led by the president’s brother Maher. In a survey of country experts we conducted in 2007, we found that Assad’s key backers — those without whose support he would have to leave power — consisted of only about 3,600 members out of a population of about 23 million. That is less than 0.02 percent….

CFR: Why Syria’s Regime Is Doomed, 2011-12-22
Dennis Ross

Amid mounting violence that has killed more than five thousand in Syria, it is “almost inevitable” the regime of President Bashar al-Assad will collapse, says Dennis Ross, a former senior Middle East adviser to President Obama. “When a regime is ..,.

The SNC has met in Tunisia in order to announce a unified opposition statement, which is carried in full below. The opposition has shown increasing unity, although many important differences over strategy and objectives continue to divide its ranks.

Law and order are slowly collapsing in Syria, along with reliable supplies of basic goods and services. The opposition is becoming more capable, more numerous, and better armed; more Syrians are despairing of the Assad regime and believe the president lives in a cocoon. The international community has isolated Syria and continues to tighten sanctions and force western companies to withdraw from the country, which is causing the economy to contract rapidly. Syria’s GDP has shrunk by almost 30% in dollar terms since the start of the year — from $55 billion to $37 billion dollars, as the Syrian pound has collapsed from 47 to 62 to a dollar. Heating oil has all but disappeared from the market place; people are cold. Cooking oil is scarce and electricity in many cities is cut for hours on end during peek usage periods. Municipal elections, by all accounts, were a bust. It is hard to see how they can change much so long as article 8 of the constitution – the article guaranteeing the supremacy of the Baath in society and politics – remains in force. Syrian opposition forces asked their followers to boycott them. The notion of reform is dead. The opposition is determined to bring down the regime, not reform it. Anyway, Assad has shown no inclination to cut the authority of the patronage network and security forces that sustain his regime in power. One must assume he will fight to the end, that was the thrust of his recent ABC interview with Barbara Walters.

What we are witnessing in Syria, is not the clash of two titanic and centralized bodies: the state and the opposition. Instead, we are seeing the steady erosion of state authority and national institutions, as the opposition, which remains largely organized on a local basis undermines central authority at many points. Neighborhood committees and armed groups are forming in ever greater number. Most use the word “coordinating” in their title, but few relinquish local authority. They prefer to keep decision-making local and in their own hands. Some of this is for practical reasons. Spies are everywhere. I am told by good sources that one of the leading reasons why Aleppo has been so quite is that the local coordinating committees recently discovered that their efforts to put together surprise demonstrations were being foiled by informants. One recent opposition statement admitted that their ranks have been riddled with informers.

The opposition remains divided over central issues of strategy – especially over how to deal with the armed opposition to the regime. The Syrian National Council claims to have gained control over the Free Syrian Army, which claims, in turn, to have control over some 15,000 defectors and armed elements in Syria. This alleged hierarchy is by most accounts fictional. The opposition groups and cells in Syria – whether peaceful or armed – are working on their own. According to the New York Times “factionalism has been hindering the drive to topple Assad.”

Current Events in Syria
Illinois Public Radio, Host: David Inge
Radio Show – Go to six minutes to start interview about current situation in Syria

Pro-Assad demonstrators on Monday after announcement of Arab League Deal. Notice that they are fewer than in the past, when the square and side roads were packed

Qatari Foreign Minister Hamad bin Jassim (C) is now a key figure at the League

Members of the Free Syrian Army at a safe-house on northern Lebanon’s border with Syria.

Syria To Cut Public Spending To Head Off Crisis
2011-12-20

DAMASCUS (AFP)–Syria has decided to slash public sector spending in a bid to head off a crisis for an economy that has taken a beating due to months of unrest and sanctions, media said Tuesday.

Prime Minister Adel Safar has issued an order for the public sector to reduce spending by 25% in a move designed at “limiting waste,” Al-Baath newspaper reported.

The cuts would be included in the 2012 budget and concern “fuel, maintenance, bonuses and transport expenses” that are usually allocated to civil servants, the report said.  Western powers have imposed sweeping economic sanctions on Syria, where the United Nations estimates more than 5,000 people have been killed since March asthe regime cracks down on a popular revolt.

Syrian Unemployment at Twice Previously Estimated Level – Syria Report

The Syrian Minister of Labour and Social Affair said last week that unemployment in the country stood at between 22 and 30 percent, a rate more than twice previously estimated levels….

Radwan Habib made this statement at the end of a Government meeting last week saying the new findings were the result of a field survey conducted by his administration. Until now, the Government put unemployment rate at 9 percent, well below the estimates of most independent analysts.

Gathering data on unemployment in Syria is difficult because few workers are registered with Social Security and Job houses but also because of cultural differences. In rural areas for instance, women working on cultivating land are rarely counted as workers, rather they consider themselves house wives.

Mr Habib did not give more details on the finding of the survey and did not say for instance whether the figure had been impacted by the current crisis engulfing the country. He did not say either why for so long the Government admitted to much lower figures. The fact that the margin is so high – between 22 and 30 percent – also casts serious doubts about the quality of the survey.

Syria Imposes Death Penalty For Arming “Terrorists”, 2011-12-20

DAMASCUS (AFP)–Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has signed into effect a law imposing the death penalty on anyone arming “terrorists,” state media said Tuesday, amid mounting clashes with rebel troops.

“The law provides for the death penalty for anyone providing weapons or helping to provide weapons intended for the carrying out of terrorist acts,” the official SANA news agency said. The Syrian authorities contend that nine-month-old protests are the work of “armed terrorists” not civilian demonstrators as maintained by Western governments and human rights groups.

SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL NEWS

The Syrian National Council (SNC) held its first plenary meeting and conference in Tunis in December 17-18, 2011. The participants paid tribute to the Syrian people’s patience and the heroes who continue to demonstrate peacefully for dignity and freedom. The regime’s tactics, including the darkest of scenarios, to drag the nation into a civil war, have failed.
The council also called upon members of the Army and concerned citizens, who have yet to join the Revolution, to get involved in this cause.The SNC discussed key issues, including its own responsibilities, and concluded with the following outcomes:

At the Organizational Level:

• The conference discussed and approved the Political Program of the SNC and the bylaws and regulations governing the ongoing relationships among its various institutions. The conference also restructured the SNC offices to promote the active participation of all political entities, including the driving forces of the Revolution and the independent national figures that have joined the SNC. The role of women in the SNC was also emphasized.
• The SNC vowed to continue all efforts to promote national unity, and to expand national efforts to guarantee the success of the Revolution and provide a means to achieve its humanitarian objectives, including freedom and dignity.

At the Domestic Level: 
The SNC renewed its commitment to the Syrian people and to the achievement of their goals. This includes the primary objectives of the Revolution:

• First, the ouster of the regime and its figures, along with all of its symbols and pillars.
• Second, the establishment of a new Syria as a democratic, pluralistic, civil state, where all citizens – men and women – are treated equally under the rule of law.
• The SNC reaffirmed its commitment to recognize the Kurdish national identity under the constitution. The Kurdish cause is an important part of a national issue of concern to the country as a whole.  Within the framework of unity in Syria, the SNC will resolve the injustices toward the Kurdish people by recognizing their national rights and compensating those affected.
• The SNC stressed its commitment to recognizing the national identity of the Assyrian Syrians under the constitution, and called for a solution to this issue within the framework of national unity.
• The SNC emphasized its rejection of any discrimination against any components of Syrian society, regardless of religious sect or ethnicity (including Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, Assyrian, Syriacs, and others), in the context of national citizenship.
• The SNC pledged to make every effort to meet the demands of the Syrian people, including relief requirements in disaster areas, as they continue their peaceful Revolution and successful civil disobedience such as the Strike for Dignity.
• The SNC and its institutions call on the Arab League, the United Nations, and the international community to take urgent action with regard to the protection of Syrian civilians and activists by creating safe havens and protected zones.
• The SNC pledged to support the Free Syrian Army, recognizing its honorable role in protecting the peaceful Revolution of our people.
• The SNC emphasized its commitment at all levels – media, economic, political, and diplomatic – to stifling the regime until its ouster.
• The SNC reaffirmed its vision of the transitional period and the general principles for the new Syria, which seek to realize a general consensus. The SNC called on all Syrians to unite in confronting injustice and tyranny and to join the Revolution in crafting the future of Syria.

At the International Level:

• The SNC emphasized its concerns with regard to cooperation with the members of the Arab League, the international community, and other international organizations to achieve the objectives and wishes of the Syrian Revolution. The SNC warned that the regime continues to disregard and circumvent the initiatives and sanctions imposed upon it. The SNC also stressed that the regime must not be granted any additional deadlines or chances.
• Moreover, the SNC urged that all countries and citizens bear a moral and humanitarian responsibility toward the Syrian people, who are facing the worst of crimes against humanity. The SNC emphasized that it is in the best interest of foreign countries to stand with the Syrian people and not with a faltering regime.
• The SNC stressed that the new Syria will restore national sovereignty to the occupied Golan Heights and support the complete and legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. This will lead to true stability in the region, as opposed to the repressive regime that threatens the stability and unity of the state, and prompts international intervention in Syria’s internal issues. The regime alone bears responsibility for the events in the country.

Burhan Ghalioun, leader of the SNC, recently ran into harsh criticism from supporters for stating that the future government of Syria would cut ties with Iran and Hizbullah and would “bank on our special relationship with the Europeans and western powers in helping us in reclaiming the Golan as fast as possible.” None of those statements appear in the latest policy statement. When the SNC was formed three months ago, it was stated that the executive – Ghalioun would serve a three month term. It is unclear whether the SNC has cleared up this sitution. A recent Wall Street Journal interview with Ghalioun carried this on the topic:

WSJ: The council’s leadership is assigned for three months terms. When does the current term end and who will lead a transitional government?

Mr. Ghalioun: To respect democratic principles, the president has a three months term, and it can be extended. My term began in October for three months. Extension is something that will be discussed—it’s a possibility.

Syria’s Opposition: What If We Offered Assad Immunity…?
By Rania Abouzeid / Time, Tunis Sunday, Dec. 18, 2011

…..The FSA was not represented at the Tunisian conference. “What for?” said one conference organizer, when asked about the rebels’ absence. “Riad al-As’ad is in charge of maybe five guys.” (See why Syria’s dissidents fear for their safety.)

“The FSA is an empty cardboard box,” said another participant. “It means nothing. And besides, if we want to try and win over the army, why would we bring the FSA here?”

Still, the FSA, unlike the SNC, has tremendous support inside Syria. There are increasing calls by protesters and defectors alike for weapons to take on Assad’s ruthless forces. Unless the SNC presents a viable alternative, the Syrian uprising may slip out of the political realm and into an all-out civil conflict, with dangerous sectarian undertones. “What difference can the SNC make if it gets international recognition and loses its legitimacy among the protesters? And what difference can the FSA make, if it fails to get all the emerging paramilitary groups to accept the authority of its Military Council and its leader?” Ammar Abdulhamid, a U.S.-based Syrian dissident who has been critical of the SNC said recently. Abdulhamid has criticized the SNC’s “lack of transparency” and claimed that several independent Syrians who wanted to attend the conference in Tunisia “as monitors” were not allowed in. “So long as SNC leaders remain more preoccupied with winning international recognition than they are with internal cohesion or outreach to their own people, they are destined to become as irrelevant and cut-off from realities as Assad is today,” he said.

Interview with Louay Hussein on FSA, civil war, sanctions, Turkey and an opposition upcoming conference: Louay is a long time opposition activist. He was first arrested in 1984 while finishing his fourth year of philosophy studies at Damascus University. He was released from jail in 1991. Earlier this year he successfully organized the first opposition conference to be held in Damascus (Samiramis conference) and launched “Building the Syrian State” political current (تيار بناء الدولة السورية)

REPORTING ON SYRIA

Stratfor Challenges Narratives on Syria, December 20, 2011,
By Sharmine Narwani, Senior Associate, St. Antony’s College, Oxford University

… Inherent Bias in Syrian Data?

The problem with information that originates from opposition groups is that there is a clear interest in disseminating “beneficial” data and underplaying “damaging” statistics. And that dynamic applies to the government too – which is why we take Syrian regime pronouncements with a grain of salt.

You don’t see the Syrian opposition taking an active role in publicizing the slaughter of rank-and-file soldiers, for instance – except to claim these forces are being shot for deserting the army. Twitter is abuzz right now with news that more than 70 of today’s 100+ dead are “deserters.”

Nor do you hear about the numbers of pro-regime civilians killed by the armed opposition – some of them allegedly while “demonstrating” in support of the Syrian regime.

Now, this does not mean that the Syrian opposition lies outright to gain sympathy and foreign support – mostly because the “opposition” is not homogenous and comes in different shapes, sizes and flavors.

But Strafor clearly questions the intent of some of these groups based on very recent evidence of disinformation campaigns:

The Stratfor article focuses primarily on opposition efforts to create the impression in the past few weeks that there is a significant split within President Assad’s own clan and within his Alawite minority sect, members of which man the top jobs in the country’s armed forces and key government positions.

Among these high-profile gaffs are a December 10 report alleging that “Syrian Deputy Defense Minister and former chief of military intelligence Asef Shawkat had been killed by his aide and former General Security Directorate chief, Gen. Ali Mamlouk.”

Stratfor posits that the unfounded “image of two senior-ranking Sunni members of the regime drawing guns on each other” helps to create ” a compelling narrative” for groups that wish “to undermine the perception that al Assad’s inner circle is united in the effort to suppress the opposition and save the regime.”

In yet another example, a December 9 statement published in the Saudi-owned Asharq al Awsat by the previously-unknown “Alawite League of Coordinating Committees” which claims to represent the Alawite community in Syria, “rejected any attempt to hold the Alawite sect responsible for the ‘barbarism’ of the al Assad regime.” Stratfor says the planted story gives “the impression that the Alawite community is fracturing and that the al Assad regime is facing a serious loss of support within its own minority sect.”……….

Syrian Army Defectors Reportedly Kill 27 Soldiers.
By NADA BAKRI, December 15, 2011

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The armed insurgency against the government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has become more organized in recent weeks, with defectors launching attacks that have become bolder and in some cases more sophisticated, according to activists and residents inside the country and in exile.

The latest attack took place on Thursday at dawn, when military defectors killed at least 27 soldiers,…

One opposition leader in exile, whose assertions could not be immediately confirmed, said that weapons were also being smuggled to Syria from Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq, and that defectors were now better armed and financed.

The attacks in recent weeks have escalated around Dara’a, in the south, and in Hama, a tense city in central Syria where vast protests gathered earlier this year before security forces retook the city in August.

Discontent is greater in these areas, observers say, where a majority of the people are poor Sunni Muslims who have suffered under government neglect, a longstanding drought and a sense of disenfranchisement by a government dominated by Alawites, a heterodox Muslim sect to which Mr. Assad belongs.

This week alone, the observatory reported four deadly attacks against government troops in Hama and Dara’a Provinces, including an ambush on Wednesday that killed at least eight members of the security forces.

“Where else are we going to find government forces vulnerable?” said Ammar al-Wawi, a former soldier reached by phone in an area near the Syrian-Turkish border. “Confrontations will happen in hot spots and where there are protests, discontent and serious opposition to the regime.”

Mr. Wawi said he left the army in March, after the uprising started. He and some other fighters said their initial goal was to ambush and kill soldiers who were headed to crush protests. For months, the government has intermittently cracked down on restive cities, sending in tanks, killing civilians and making arrests, according to activists.

Though the Free Syrian Army — a group of mainly army defectors whose commanders are based in Turkey — claimed to have staged most of the recent attacks, some activists and American officials disagree over the degree of coordination. Many of the attacks themselves often seem haphazard.

Estimates of the numbers of defectors vary wildly. An Obama administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, estimated their total at 1,000 to 3,500. The official said that armed civilians had apparently joined some of the defectors.

Some activists have suggested that parts of Dara’a and Hama Provinces have become so hostile that security forces are finding it difficult to enter them.

A town near Dara’a called Hirak has witnessed daily antigovernment protests in recent weeks, and residents there say that it has become off limits for security forces.

An opposition activist who did not want to be identified said that about 800 fighters, mainly army defectors, were based there.

“The regime hasn’t attacked once in recent weeks,” said Anwar Fares, a human rights activist from Dara’a. “They have been attacked on the outskirts of the town several times, so they are now scared and stay away.”

Mr. Fares said an increasing number of Syrian civilians were joining the defectors, especially people who had lost family members in the government’s crackdown.

27 Dead After Syrian Government Forces, Defectors Clash

… Analyst Harling said, however, that growing ranks of defectors are now often inflicting casualties on government forces that “exceed the number of victims among protesters.” He added that the “dynamics on the ground appear to be shifting in favor of the insurgency.”

Harling insists that he sees “ominous trends” pointing to “regionalization of the Syrian conflict.” Despite those trends, though, he argues there is “no strong, tangible evidence that a regional proxy war has started yet.” Syrian forces, meanwhile, continue to target defectors whom they see as a growing threat.

Free Syria Army Will Retaliate if 21 Members are Executed

The Free Syrian Army, which has waged a rebellion against the government of President Bashar al-Assad since June, said it had received information that 21 of their number are to face a firing squad within the next 24 hours.

The rebels said they would retaliate against government forces and militiamen loyal to the regime in the city of Homs, an opposition stronghold, if the executions take place.

“I have a personal message for the army: If the army executes these men, there will be a very harsh retaliation against them here in Homs,” Abdul-Razaq Tlas, the commander of one of two rebel battalions in the city, told the Daily Telegraph.

OTHER NEWS

Syrian workers hold general strike; voter turnout is low in local elections – From Foreign Policy

Syrian opposition activists said most of Syria’s capital of Damascus has been shutdown, and shops throughout the country were closed in the largest general strike since the protest movement began in March…. At the same time, the county is holding local elections for 17,588 seats in Syria’s 1,337 administrative units. Overall, voter turnout is expected to be very low as opposition activists have called for a boycott and many residents fear leaving their homes to go to the polls. The voting comes amid one of the fiercest clashes since the start of the uprisings between government forces and defectors loosely aligned into the Free Syria Army (FSA). Syria’s 12^th Armored Brigade, based in Isra, a town 25 miles from Jordan in the south, stormed the town of Busra al-Harir, where the FSA was allegedly hiding and waging attacks. Inan escalation of international tensions, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe made a statement accusing Syrians of being behind the attack that wounded five UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon last week, though he offered no evidence. Meanwhile, the Arab League will meet on Saturday to discuss Syria’s conditional acceptance of a peace plan involving international monitors.

Economic Impact of Strike Difficult to Assess – from Jihad Yazigi’s Syria Report

Business activity remained apparently normal in central parts of Damascus and Aleppo on Sunday, although other parts of the country appeared to be complying with calls for a general strike by the Syrian opposition.

The Struggle for Syria in 2011, Middle East Security Report 2, December 12, 2011
By Joseph Holliday
Executive Summary

This paper provides context for understanding the cycles of violence in Syria. The first section provides a brief historical overview of sectarianism in Syria in order to understand its role in the current conflict. The second section provides a framework for understanding the operations and strategy of the Assad regime. The paper then analyzes regime security operations in seven regions: Dera’a province; Damascus; Homs and Hama in central Syria; the coastal region; Idlib province; the Arab east; and the Kurdish northeast. The paper concludes with an examination of regional and international responses to the conflict…..

Syria Holds Local Polls as Violence Continues, By: Al Jazeera and Agencies | Al Jazeera

Syrian opposition officials in London reported that Deputy Minister of Defense of Syria Assef Shawkat, husband of Bushra Assad, was killed during an argument with his aide General Ali Mamlouk. Stratfor is reporting this, which seems like unreliable gossip or misinformation to me.

Blogger, Rami al-Jarrah, describes his escape from Syria, 12 Dec 2011

Rami al-Jarrah, who was blogging and tweeting from Syria under the pseudonym “Alexander Page,” just fled the country after his real identity became known to the intelligence services. Upon his arrival in Qatar he almost got sent back to Syria but thanks to a swift outpouring of support on Twitter, he was allowed in….

Syrian minister of petroleum claims smuggling and hording is main cause of scarcity.

العلاو: العامل النفسي للمواطنين وانخفاض السعر والتهريب من أسباب أزمة المازوت والغاز

Factional splits in Syrian opposition hinder drive to topple Assad New York Times
Posted: 10 Dec 2011 05:00 AM PST

The New York Times: Even as the government of President Bashar al-Assad intensifies its crackdown inside Syria, differences over tactics and strategy are generating serious divisions between political and armed opposition factions that are weakening the fight against him, senior activists say. Soldiers and activists close to the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is orchestrating [...]

New Parties Announced

More and more opposition parties and groups are announcing themselves each week. For example, Murhaf Jouejati, a Washington DC based academic and member of the SNC, announced the formation of a new political party – The National Consensus Movement.  A new Islamic Front announced itself in Cairo a few days ago. The Kurdish parties are sitting on the sidelines. They don’t trust Turkey, which has been sponsoring opposition groups, and they don’t trust Arabs, who are suspicious that Kurdish demands for “national” recognition and autonomy are but a prelude to calls for independence. The minorities remain fearful of the possible tyranny of Islam. They insist that their liberties will be steamrolled by the growing strength of Islamic parties. Many see the Arab Spring to be a thinly disguised “revenge of the Sunnis.”

إسلاميو سوريا يعلنون التيار الوطني السوري من القاهرة

السبت 14 من محرم1433هـ 10-12-2011م الساعة 08:18 م مكة المكرمة 05:18 م جرينتش

مفكرة الإسلام:‎ قرر إسلاميو سوريا تشكيل “التيار الوطني السوري” بهدف إيجاد صيغة سياسية لثورتهم تدافع عن مطالبهم بالتوازي مع العمل النضالي والثوري على الأراضي السورية، وذلك في خضم الشهر التاسع للثورة، وأكدوا أن النظام السوري فقد شرعيته ولا مجال للحوار معه ولا مناص عن رحيله.

وبحسب صحيفة “الأهرام” المصرية فإن التيار الاسلامي الوطني السوري – الذي تم تدشينه من نقابة الصحافيين ظهر اليوم – ينبثق من المقاصد الإسلامية الأصيلة التي أكدت المحتوى الأخلاقي والروحي للرسالات السماوية التي صبغت الثقافة الإنسانية وعبرت عن جوهر الثقافة السورية المتجددة.

وتشمل أهداف التيار تحرير الفرد والمجتمع من الاستبداد والفساد والسعي لتحقيق ذلك على أرض الواقع سياسيًا واجتماعيا وثقافيا، ودعم استقلال سوريا بالمحافظة على قيم الجمهورية والنظام الديمقراطي التعددي التداولي وإقامة دولة المؤسسات والمواطنة وسيادة القانون.

ومن أهداف التيار كذلك تعزيز الحريات المدنية والسياسية والاقتصادية والدينية لجميع السوريين والعمل لبناء وطن يحتضن الجميع ويوفر العيش الكريم الحر لكافة أبنائه، وتعزيز دور الشباب في المجتمع السوري لما يمتلكون من قدرات مبدعة ولما اثبتوه من دور رائد في الثورة السورية.

وقال الدكتور عماد الدين الرشيد، رئيس المكتب السياسي للتيار الوطني السوري: “التيار ليس محاكاة لتيار سابق أو موجود ولكنه تيار إسلامي بسيط هدفه حماية المواطنين وتوفير السلم لهم، والتيار يمثل ضمانه للسلم الأهلي”.

وأضاف الرشيد: “مضي 60 يومًا علي مبادرة الجامعة العربية ولكن مازال نظام الأسد يمارس “الافتراس” تجاه الشعب، ورؤية التيار تتعلق بالوضع السوري وخاصة الجيش الوطني الذي تحول إلى أداة قتل في يد النظام”.

وتابع أن الوطنيين من أبناء الجيش انشقوا عنه وشكلوا الجيش الحر، نافيًا أن يكون إسقاط النظام السوري بالضغط الأجنبى ولكنه من خلال الضغط الشعبى.

Jerusalem Post: ‘No substitute for US leadership on Syria’

2011-12-12

WASHINGTON – Syria is too important a country for its crisis to be handled by any actor other than the United States, experts on Mideast geopolitics and national security said late last week at an annual policy conference in Washington. The US and …

Tony Badran – a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the Washington think tank that organized the event – said neither the Arab League nor Turkey wield the necessary military or diplomatic clout to end a nearly nine-month government crackdown said to have killed at least 4,000 people.

“Syria is a pillar of the Iranian axis. Only the US can do this – it can’t be outsourced,” Badran said. “The US acting like a human-rights NGO just won’t cut it.”

Turkey, which shares a 900-km. border with Syria, has raised the possibility of creating a buffer zone along their the frontier, but has also shrunk from the prospect of large-scale military action.

Andrew Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said military operations in the country would present difficulties not encountered in this year’s NATO intervention in Libya.

“Unlike Libya, Syria has a massive air defense system. The US could handle it, but not the Turks,” he said.

Current and former US officials from both sides of the aisle called for Washington to show greater leadership against Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Rep. Eliot Engel (D-New York) said America must honor its responsibility as the champion of freedom-seeking peoples worldwide.

“People care what the US says and look to it as a beacon of democracy. Shame on us if we shirk that duty,” said Engel, who in 2003 sponsored the Syria Accountability Act….

Bashar al-Assad Isn’t Going Anywhere (Voluntarily)

Max Fisher – Atlantic

Though some media critics were disappointed by Walters’ interview, it did lead Assad to reveal his intentions. His message to the world, delivered through one shrugging denial or smiling falsehood after another: I’m not going anywhere.

Friend Writes: Electric cuts in Aleppo now 6 hrs a day – three in morning and three in evening.

The weather in Aleppo is very cold. Since Mazzout is in short supply, many are trying to economize on use of heaters. They are buying electric ones for single rooms. Unused parts of the house are left without heat. So many people are doing the same that the electric grid cannot keep up with demand. Just now, Aleppo has been over three hours without electricity. My sister’s daughter is doing her school work under candle light. When i called they were so fed up staying home without light that they decided to park the car in the middle of the city and sit inside it to pass time till the electricity is back.

قال وزير الكهرباء عماد خميس:”لقد تجاوز الطلب على الطاقة الأولية لجميع حواملها لعام 2010 (24) مليون طن مكافئ نفط وتشير الدراسات إلى أن هذا الطلب سيتجاوز (70) مليون طن مكافئ نفط في عام 2030 وستكون الفجوة كبيرة بين هذه الكمية وكمية الإنتاج من المصادر الاحفورية والتقليدية المحلية والتي لن يتجاوز اجماليها (28) مليون طن مكافئ نفط في ضوء المعلومات والبيانات المتوفرة لدى وزارة النفط”.

 وأشار الوزير ان تعويض العجز بمصادر الطاقة بالاستيراد من الخارج سيكلف خزينة الدولة حوالي 1.7 تريليون ل.س بالقطع الأجنبي وسيكون تأمين هذا المبلغ من أهم وأصعب التحديات التي ستواجه أصحاب القرار وقد يستنزف أهم موارد سورية المالية، مما يبطئ معدلات الناتج القومي

Many argue that Syria is fine since it has low debt, but simply to upgrade the electric grid will cost the country $28 billion. This is more than 50% of GDP. Its like saying that the American economy needs $7 trillion to upgrade its electricity. Syria has low debt but that is largely because it has resisted making improvements to its antiquated infrastructure. Syria needs a massive modernization campaign.

Until the Tunisia conference Hytham Mannaa was against SNC. He’s with the NCC. Walid Bunni left the SNC. Those division seem to be on the mend.

Read Juan Cole’s Hizbullah Leader Condemns Syrian Opposition

Republicans Decry Obama Israel Policy in Bid for Jewish Vote

Gingrich called for the overthrow of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, saying the U.S. should push for regime change in Iran and Syria. He vowed to move the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a sensitive topic in peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. And, if elected, he promised to appoint John Bolton, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, as secretary of state, prompting wild applause from the standing-room-only audience.

National Coordination Body for Democratic Change has produced a draft document of proposals for the creation of the Syrian General Congress. The NCB delegation is currently in Cairo working with the Arab League to unify the ranks of the Syrian opposition.

The draft proposals present a critical opportunity to put an end to the multiple and various voices of the democratic opposition, to build a core foundation for the struggle to overthrow the regime with all the supporting infrastructure, and a program for transition and the building of the pluralist democracy based on citizenship, law and respect for the rights of persons and groups, and to ensure the preservation of fundamental freedoms, social justice and territorial integrity within the homeland of Syria, which is part of the Arab world.

The National Coordination Body for Democratic Change refuses the call for external military intervention, and will not accept the participation of any person involved in economic or political crimes. Participants in this conference should agree to reject and resist any form of sectarianism or the mobilization of sectarian violence, militarism and exclusion. The conference is presented as the basis upon which to unite the efforts of the opposition forces and figures across a broad base upon the principles of consensus and democracy.

The National Coordination Body for Democratic Change proposes that the Preparatory Committee will include members of the SNC, NBC, Kurdish representatives, trades unions and public figures.

AL-ASSAD IN COMPLETE DENIAL, By Andrew J. Tabler

How Turkish perceive women and religion: a revealing survey of modern Turkey.

“The findings of a 2011 survey by a team of academics from Istanbul’s Bahçesehir University revealed hints about the related Turkish mental paradigm: 33 percent of Turks think women deserve to be beaten; 60 percent (both male and female) think women should obey men and surprise, surprise, 81 percent identify themselves as religiously devout. A separate study in 2010 had found that 25 percent of Turks think it would amount to sinning if women and men worked in the same office.”

In Syria, Expelling the Peacemakers
By STEPHANIE SALDAÑA, Op-Ed Contributor, Published: December 8, 2011, New York Times

SEVEN years ago, I stood in the chapel of a monastery in the Syrian desert and stared up at a wall of frescoes from the 13th century.

Nearby, a burly man in a gray habit was explaining the paintings to a family visiting from a neighboring village. “That’s Mariam, may peace be upon her,” he said, pointing up. He moved his hand toward the bearded portrait of a man. “And that’s Ibrahim al-Khalil, may peace be upon him.”

Though it may seem like a mundane story, it was anything but ordinary. The visitors, who had climbed a flight of some 350 stairs to arrive there, were Muslims. The man describing the frescoes to them was Father Paolo Dall’Oglio, an Italian Jesuit priest who was speaking to them in the local Arabic dialect.

The frescoes he was pointing to were Christian, but he was identifying the figures using their Arabic names from the Koran. It was a remarkable moment, and the message it contained was simple: Despite their differences, Muslims and Christians believe in the same God.

Last week, the Syrian government issued an order that after 30 years in the country, Father Dall’Oglio would be expelled.

Father Dall’Oglio founded the community of Deir Mar Musa in 1982, at the height of the Lebanese Civil War. He had hiked out into the desert in search of a ruined Byzantine monastery. After spending 10 days praying in the rubble, he was inspired to rebuild the monastery and to found a community of monks and nuns dedicated to prayer, silence and hospitality. The Syrian monastery, situated between Iraq, Lebanon, Israel and the West Bank, would symbolize peace. The community would welcome each Muslim visitor as a sacred guest, just as Abraham, in both the Bible and the Koran, had welcomed the angels of God. ….The devastating fate of the Christians in Iraq has already served as a warning. Father Dall’Oglio’s expulsion, if it is carried out as planned, will send a clear message to all of them — that the regime’s support of Christians is not unconditional. Those who dare mention the oppression of the Assad regime or who advocate for a dialogue to change the country will be deemed members of the opposition.

This puts local Christians in a bind. To seek change may put their community at risk. Yet to remain silent in the face of injustice will surely reduce Christianity to an identity, a sect, and not a living faith seeking to follow the message of the gospels. It will also strain a relationship between Muslims and Christians in Syria that has existed for over a thousand years. ….

Syria Added to Higher-Risk Shipping Zones By Marine Insurers

Raising the stakes: Russian military support for Syria, By James M. Dorsey

Russia is stepping up military support for Syria; reinforcing its opposition to international efforts to force President Bashar al-Assad to halt his eight-month-old crackdown on anti-government protesters. In so doing, Russia is turning the Syrian crisis into an international test of wills….

CFR.org: Assad’s Revelations, 2011-12-08

Jerusalem Post: Analysis: Word of caution on Assad’s fall, 2011-12-13

Defense Minister Ehud Barak was reported this week as predicting that the regime of Bashar Assad would fall within weeks. Certainly things are not going well for the Assad family dictatorship. The bloodletting continues as the Free Syrian Army and …

Pro-regime Aleppo Industrialist has Factory Burned Down an Aleppine writes:

“AL OULABI SAW THE FIRE UPON ARRIVAL, HE HAD A HEART ATTACK AND DIED ON THE SPOT. HE WAS ONE OF THE BEST KNOWN BUSINESS PEOPLE IN HALAB. HE WAS A MEMBER OF MAJLIS AL SHAAB AND “MAHSOUB AL NIZAM”

المؤشرات تؤكد أنه بفعل فاعل ومخطط بعناية لهُ

حريق ثانٍ في معامل ( علبي تكس)..الخسائر مليار و 500 مليون ليرة..ولقمة مئات العمال, 13/12/2011 – syriasteps

 حلب- خاص– سيرياستيبس:

 شب صباح اليوم حريق ثانٍ في معمل ( علبي تكس) بعد أقل من أسبوع على الحريق الذي طال صالة النسيج ( البرادي).

ويبدو أن الحريق الجديد بفعل فاعل ومخطط له وبما يؤكد أيضاً أن الحريق الأول أيضاً مفتعل .   هذا وساد مدينة حلب جو من الاستنكار والحزن , إذ أن معامل ( علبي تكس) تشغّل آلاف الموظفين وتتمتع عائلة علبي بسمعة طيبة في المدينة, كما أن إنتاجها يغطي عشرات المصانع التي ستتضرر بشكل مباشر من جراء الحريق.

INTERVENTION IN SYRIA: ASSESSING THE OPTIONS
By Steven Beasley, Michael Eisenstadt, and Jeffrey White

Without external intercession, the violence in Syria is likely to escalate, with destabilizing consequences for its neighbors, particularly Lebanon and Iraq…..

Syria Added to Higher-Risk Shipping Zones By Marine Insurers, 2011-12-13

By Michelle Wiese Bockmann

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) — Marine insurers added Syria to a list of countries deemed higher-risk for shipping, and removed Qatar, the Ivory Coast, and parts of Mindanao, the Philippines.

The Joint War Committee, which represents Lloyd’s of London underwriters and other insurers, listed Syria as a higher risk on a notice to members published Dec. 8. The declaration lets underwriters charge an additional premium based on the value of ships calling in the area.

(CNN) — Pressure is growing for world leaders to respond to Syria’s brutal crackdown on anti-regime protests.

Alawite political figure speaks out against sectarian violence

Amman: A Syrian Alawite centrist political figure said on Tuesday that four of his relatives were shot or kidnapped in sectarian violence threatening to undermine a nine-month pro-democracy uprising.

In a rare named testimony about sectarian killings that have racked the central city of Homs in the last few weeks, Mohammad Saleh told Reuters the four were targeted because they were Alawites, the same sect as President Bashar Al Assad.

“The violence by the regime has provoked counter violence. But a crime is a crime and it has to be condemned,” said Saleh, a former political prisoner, by phone from Homs, a city of one million, 140km north of Damascus.

“I went to jail for a civilised Syria, not to replicate the values of the regime,” said Saleh, who spent 12 years in jail for his opposition to Al Assad’s father, the late president Hafez Al Assad, from whom Bashar inherited power in 2000.

A FORMER senior diplomat yesterday became one of the most senior Syrian regime insiders to openly denounce the government of President Bashar al-Assad, calling on the international community to protect civilians.

Mohammad Bassam Imadi, previously Syria’s ambassador to Sweden, fled to Turkey with his family 10 days ago. He told The Times that many inside the Syrian government secretly wanted Mr Assad to fall.

“People even high up aren’t loyal to the government, but they can’t do anything,” he said. “They are scared for their lives and families. I have so many friends who have said this to me.”

He said their resentment had been driven by the regime’s failure to grant reforms in the early stages of the uprising.

Obama, Arab allies eye no-fly zone that could ‘paralyze’ Syrian military

US says Assad regime in Syria is doomed, urges opposition to prevent sectarian strife,
By MATTHEW LEE, 14 December 2011, Associated Press Newswires

WASHINGTON (AP) – The Obama administration is predicting the downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad with a senior official likening his authoritarian regime to a “dead man walking” over its brutal crackdown on pro-reform demonstrators and increasing international isolation.

The State Department official, Frederic Hof, told Congress on Wednesday that Assad’s repression may allow him to hang on to power but only for a short time. And, he urged the Syrian opposition to prepare for the day when it takes control of the state in order to prevent chaos and sectarian conflict.

“Our view is that this regime is the equivalent of dead man walking,” said Hof, the State Department’s pointman on Syria, which he said was turning into “Pyongyang in the Levant,” a reference to the North Korean capital. He said it was difficult to determine how much time Assad has left in power but stressed “I do not see this regime surviving.”

The Syria Crisis: Assessing Foreign Intervention
December 15, 2011 | By Scott Stewart, Stratfor

The ongoing unrest, violence and security crackdowns in Syria have been the subject of major international attention since February. Our current assessment is that the government and opposition forces have reached a stalemate in which the government cannot quell the unrest and the opposition cannot bring down the regime without outside intervention…..

US interference in Syria could bring about another Iraq
By Charles Glass, The Evening Standard 15/12/11

The withdrawal of most United States forces from Iraq this week is anything but the end of American military involvement in the Middle East. The latest focus of Washington’s attention is Syria, where the United Nations says 5,000 people have been killed since the uprising erupted in March. Before American (and probably British) soldiers are asked to give their lives in another Arab country, they are entitled to ask important questions. Is Washington attempting to install a democratic government in Damascus? Or is it seizing the opportunity to bring down Iran’s main Arab ally in advance of an American or Israeli attack on Iran?

History has not been kind to Syria’s desire for change
The National 16/12/11, Charles Glass

A dog in Lebanon, an old joke goes, was so hungry, mangy and tired of civil war that he escaped to Syria. To the surprise of the other dogs, he returned a few months later. Seeing him better groomed and fatter than before, they asked whether the Syrians had been good to him. “Very good.” “Did they feed and wash you?” “Yes.” “Then why did you come back?” “I want to bark.” It is impossible not to sympathise with Syrians’ desire to be treated like adults. The Syrian regime is not alone, of course, among Middle East dictatorships in regarding their people as subjects rather than citizens. Under the portrait of the great dictator, little dictators grant some supplicants permits, demand bribes from others and abuse the rest. Syrians can identify with what Italians under Mussolini used to say: “The problem is no

t the big dictator. It is all the little dictators.” Little dictators, though, thrive under the big dictator. But all dictators are at risk from changed international circumstances, a spark (like a self-immolation in Tunisia) or the sudden realisation that the regime is vulnerable. People in Syria have reasons to demand change, as they have in the past. I hope, for their sake, that things turn out better this time.

Syrie : l’islam dans la révolution
Par Thomas Pierret

Syrian blogger Razan Ghazzawi’s release came after an international campaign

Assad’s ABC Interview with Barbara Walters

This interview suggests that President Assad continues to see his fight to be against terrorists and external plots, as he has argued from the beginning. He denied that he is killing his own people and suggested that more Syrian soldiers have been killed than Syrian innocents. Whether he remains convinced of his rectitude, whether his primary motivation is to hang on to power, or whether he is simply frightened of the consequences of yielding authority to his opponents, Assad gave no indication that he is having second thoughts about his position or is ready to yield. One must conclude that Syria’s fight will be a long one.

Syrian Muslim Brotherhood leader, Mohammed Riad Al-Shaqfa, told ash-Sharq al-Awsat two days ago,”I believe that the al-Assad regime will collapse within the next few months. … the [Syrian] regime’s days are over. It is gasping its final breaths….; he wants to portray himself as being in charge of Syria’s land, sea, and air, but he is a liar, and is not in charge of anything but himself.”

This seems to be wishful thinking. Assad remains in control of the Syrian military, which is strong compared to the opposition. Economic sanctions are beginning to exact a terrible toll on the Syrian people. Most have no heat because mazoot (feul oil) is scarce or non-existent in most regions of Syria. The Syrian pound has fallen below 62 to a dollar from 47. This means that Syrians have lost over 25% of their worth and purchasing power. Price hikes are everywhere and dramatic.

Aleppo’s economy has been hammered by the freezing of trade with Turkey. Many Syrians have made trade with Turkey their livelihood over the past decade. Prices of all Turkish products (cloths in particular) jumped 30-40% overnight in response to the new 30% tariff that has been placed on Turkish goods entering Syria. “They are sawing off the branch they’re sitting on,” Turkish Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan told reporters in televised remarks from Istanbul. “These aren’t moves that a country with such a need for cash and a seriously pressured economy should be making.”

Locally produced Syrian goods are much inferior in quality to those imported from Turkey. A number of key Syrian industries have been shuttered due to Turkish competition, so the new tariffs are causing real scarcities in some goods.

Turkey responded today by suspending its free trade accord with Syria. It has slapped a 30% tariff on Syria’s imports and opened 2 additional crossings to Iraq in order to assist efforts by local merchants to bypass Syria in trade with the Gulf and Egypt.

Despite Promises From Assad, ABC News Crew Encountered difficulties – New York TImes Blog

President Bashar al-Assad held his first interview in Damascus with a U.S. reporter since the start of the Syrian uprisings,telling Barbara Walters that he did not order a government crackdown on protesters. Assad said that he had the support of the Syrian people and denied the credibly of the United Nations reports estimating the violent death of more than 4,000 people. He claimed that the majority of people killed since March have been government forces. He admitted that some mistakes had been made, but were undertaken by individuals, claiming that as president he does not “own” the army. The U.S. State Department spokesman, Mark Toner, responded to the interview stating “I find it ludicrous that he is attempting to hide behind some sort of shell game [and] claim that he doesn’t exercise authority in his own country.” Meanwhile the government committee advising on drafting a new constitution announced new provisions that would ban “discrimination between political parties.” However, the amendments further entrench Assad’s rule by legalizing his presidency by lowering age requirements and advancing his military rank to commander in chief of the Syrian military and armed forces.

 Assad said: “I’m president. I don’t own the country, so they’re not my forces.” “There’s a difference between having a policy to crack down and between having some mistakes committed by some officials. There is a big difference,” the reporter quoted Assad as saying.

The next day, his spokespeople were denying that he meant what he said: ASSAD REMARKS DIDN’T AIM TO DODGE RESPONSIBILITY: SPOKESMAN. 2011-12-07

Turkey downplays Syrian transit route for Middle East trade
Dec. 7, 2011 (Xinhua) — Turkey’s economy minister

downplayed Syria’s significance as a transit route for Turkish trucks carrying goods to Middle Eastern and Gulf countries. Zafer Caglayan said: “We have three alternative routes through Alexandria, Beirut and Iraq and possibly a fourth through the Suez Canal.”

“We moved yesterday evening to take advantage of these alternatives and all of a sudden the Syrian government decided to let Turkish trucks into the country,” he added. He noted that Syrian customs officials have forced Turkish truck drivers to form long queues keeping them waiting at the border gates with Turkey but on Wednesday trucks were allowed in.

“By-passing Syria is a piece of cake. But we did not to want to choose that path. We want to use Syria as a transit route and allow Syrian economy to make money out of it,” Caglayan said. Syria did not permit the entrance of Turkish trucks at the Babel Hawas Border Gate and began working on their computer systems on December 1, the day when Syrian officials suspended a free trade agreement between Turkey and Syria.

Guardian (GB): Sectarian bloodshed worsens in Syria amid uprising
2011-12-06

ELIZABETH A. KENNEDY Associated Press= BEIRUT (AP) — Dozens of bodies were dumped in the streets of a Syrian city at the heart of the country’s nearly 9-month-old uprising, a grim sign that sectarian bloodshed is escalating as the country descends … Up to 50 people were killed in Homs on Monday, but details about what happened in Syria’s third-largest city only came to light Tuesday with reports of retaliatory attacks pitting members of the Alawite sect against Sunnis.

The sectarian violence is a dire development in Syria, and one that opposition members say plays directly into the regime’s hands. Since the uprising began, Assad portrayed himself as the lone force who can ward off the radicalism and sectarianism that have bedeviled neighbors in Iraq and Lebanon.

Opposition figures have accused Assad’s minority Alawite regime of trying to stir up trouble with the Sunni majority to blunt enthusiasm for the uprising. …. Thirty-four of the dead were shot execution-style, their bodies dumped in a public square, according to Saleh and others who monitor the violence, including the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Saleh said all were from the predominantly Sunni district of Jabb al-Jandali. He said Alawite gunmen had raided the district after an Alawite was found dead earlier.

A Homs government official confirmed only that 43 bodies were found Monday in Homs. He asked that his name not be published because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

The reports could not be independently confirmed. Syria has banned most foreign journalists and prevents the work of independent media.

With 4,000 people dead across Syria in the uprising, the conflict is no longer just a matter of government forces firing on peaceful protesters looking to topple Assad’s autocratic regime.

The government also has been facing strong resistance from army defectors who have taken refuge in Homs. But sectarian overtones are building as well, because the uprising has unearthed long-simmering grievances that are now exploding into violence.

WSJ: Hamas To Move Base Out Of Syria
2011-12-06, By Joshua Mitnick

Hamas ordered the departure of nearly all its staff at its Damascus headquarters by next week following pressure from Turkey and Qatar, two regional allies trying to isolate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad amid an eight-month crackdown on antiregime protests, according to a Hamas official. The Islamic militant group’s parting of ways with Mr. Assad marks the latest blow to the regime. Damascus has hosted Hamas since the Palestinian group was forced out of Jordan in the late 1990s. Leaving Syria also distances Hamas from Iran, an ally of Mr. Assad that has provided the Palestinian militants with money, training and military hardware.

Over recent months, Tehran has urged Hamas not to relocate, the official said. (This story and related background material will be available on The Wall
Street Journal website, WSJ.com.) Hamas will establish new headquarters in Cairo and Qatar to replace its operations in Syria, the official added. At the same time, Hamas leader Khaled Meshal is scheduled to meet with King Abdullah II of Jordan to discuss upgrading its presence in the kingdom. …

GENEVA (AFP)–The U.S. ambassador to Damascus will return to Syria Tuesday evening, Washington said. “Ambassador Robert Ford has completed his consultations in Washington and is returning to Damascus this evening,” a senior state department official said.

French ambassador returns to Damascus: ministry: “Eric Chevallier returned to his post in Damascus on Monday following the consultations for which he was recalled,” the ministry’s deputy spokesman, Romain Nadal, told AFP

Clinton: Syria must do more than remove Assad
2011-12-06

The United States on Tuesday calls for a new regime of tolerance and freedom in Syria as forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad battle fighters infiltrating the country.
Clinton: Syria must do more than remove Assad …

From: State Department Press Office
Sent: Tuesday, December 06, 2011 11:17 AM
To: State Department Press Office
Subject: REMARKS – Secretary Clinton – Meeting with Syrian National Council

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
At Meeting with Syrian National Council

December 6, 2011
Intercontinental Hotel
Geneva, Switzerland

SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, first, let me begin by saying that it’s an honor to meet with all of you, the president and senior members of the Syrian National Council. I look forward to our discussion and hearing from each of you. I am particularly interested in the work you are doing about how a democratic transition would proceed. Fred Hof, my special coordinator, has told me that you’ve put a lot of work into that paper, and there are many very constructive ideas in it, because obviously, a democratic transition includes more than removing the Asad regime. It means setting Syria on the path of the rule of law and protecting the universal rights of all citizens regardless of sect or ethnicity or gender.

Second, we will discuss the work that the Council is doing to ensure that their plan is to reach out to all minorities, to counter the regime’s divide-and-conquer approach, which pits ethnic and religious groups against one another. The Syrian opposition, as represented here, recognizes that Syria’s minorities have legitimate questions and concerns about their future, and that they need to be assured that Syria will be better off under a regime of tolerance and freedom that provides opportunity and respect and dignity on the basis of the consent rather than on the whims of a dictator.

And we certainly believe that if Syrians unite, they together can succeed in moving their country to that better future. We are well aware that there is a lot of hard work to be done. There are many Syrians in exile who are committed to helping their country make this transition. And there are many Syrians in their homes and neighborhoods and communities who are struggling against the violence and the repression to realize that better future as well.

I think Syrians both in exile and inside Syria are behaving with great courage and commitment and are inspired and motivated by the aspirations of freedom and democracy that are sweeping the Arab world.

So I look forward to hearing from each of you in our time together this afternoon. Thank you very much.

Embargoed Syrian Crude To Flow To India – Shipbrokers
6 December 2011
11:25
Dow Jones International News
– Indian refiner HPCL provisionally charters a tanker to take Syrian crude to India, shipbrokers say.
– Exports of Syrian crude have dried up since the imposition of an EU embargo in September.
– Syria has around 150,000bpd of crude to export, most of which traditionally goes to Europe.

Why Iran might be worried by Hillary Clinton’s meeting with Syria exiles – Christian Science Monitor
Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer / December 6, 2011

The subject of the Geneva meeting between Hillary Clinton and Syria exiles was the transition to democracy. But the group’s leader has been warning Iran a post-Assad Syria could be far less friendly….